Sassuolo 2-0 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sassuolo at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sassuolo vs Carrarese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 36 as Sassuolo welcome Carrarese to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Kick-off is set for Thursday 1 May 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sassuolo — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Sassuolo have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Sassuolo are significantly better at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Carrarese have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Carrarese have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Sassuolo have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sassuolo register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Carrarese in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sassuolo have won 1, Carrarese 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 2–0 with Sassuolo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sassuolo trading profile (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Carrarese trading profile (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 59% versus Carrarese 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 56% | Carrarese 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 2.29 xG and Carrarese 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.483 / defence 0.920 | Carrarese attack 0.771 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.163. Sassuolo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.483 — their λ of 2.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 34 Sassuolo games / 34 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 70% | Draw 19% | Carrarese 11%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 1.43 | Draw 5.26 | Carrarese 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Sassuolo (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sassuolo at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 60% | Carrarese 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Thursday 1 May 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 70% | Draw 19% | Carrarese 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 51% | xG Sassuolo 2.29 / Carrarese 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.483 / def 0.920 | Carrarese attack 0.771 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Carrarese xG
51%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Carrarese kick off?
Sassuolo vs Carrarese kicked off at 18:30 on Thursday 1 May 2025 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Carrarese?
Sassuolo 2 - 0 Carrarese.
Where is Sassuolo vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Carrarese part of?
Sassuolo vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 70% chance of winning, Carrarese a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sassuolo and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Carrarese?
Record (1 meetings): Sassuolo 1W | Draws 0 | Carrarese 0W.
What form are Sassuolo and Carrarese in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sassuolo's attacking strength (1.48x league average) is weighed against Carrarese's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.29. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
70%
1.44
19%
5.17
11%
8.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
3.11
0.82
Carrarese xG
1.44
70%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
8.98
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
10%
9.86
Win to Nil
30%
3.28
1%
88.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Sassuolo and 0.82 for Carrarese, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Carrarese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sassuolo come into this having played 34 games, going 24W 6D 4L for 2.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Carrarese sit at 1.21 PPG from 34 outings (10W 11D 13L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Sassuolo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Carrarese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sassuolo's home form reads 13W 2D 1L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Carrarese have taken 0.56 points per game from 16 outings (1W 6D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sassuolo are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.03 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Carrarese in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Current Season
Carrarese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 24W 6D 4L in their last 34 games (2.29 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 10W 11D 13L in their last 34 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Carrarese away?
Sassuolo's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 2.56 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Carrarese in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sassuolo and Carrarese runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Sassuolo
0
Draws
0
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Carrarese?
From 2 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 2, Carrarese have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2025, when Sassuolo 2-0 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Carrarese?
Sassuolo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 56%, Carrarese 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sassuolo) and 50% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Sassuolo keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Carrarese in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Sassuolo's games and 56% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sassuolo vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Sassuolo's recent games and 50% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Carrarese tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sassuolo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Carrarese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Carrarese 2-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 2.29 xG and Carrarese 0.82 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Carrarese landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.48 / defence 0.92 against Carrarese attack 0.77 / defence 1.19, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 70% | Draw 19% | Carrarese 11%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 56%, Carrarese 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Carrarese's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sassuolo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.