Sampdoria 1-0 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Spezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Spezia at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sampdoria — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sampdoria have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio Luigi Ferraris — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Spezia have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Sampdoria) versus 1.30 (Spezia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Sampdoria have won 2, Spezia 4, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 9 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Spezia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Spezia trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 53% versus Spezia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sampdoria 38% | Spezia 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.27 xG and Spezia 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.962 / defence 1.029 | Spezia attack 0.955 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.029. Data: 59 Sampdoria games / 59 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 42% | Draw 30% | Spezia 29%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Spezia 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sampdoria as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 60% | Spezia 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 42% | Draw 30% | Spezia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Sampdoria 1.27 / Spezia 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.962 / def 1.029 | Spezia attack 0.955 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Spezia xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Spezia kick off?
Sampdoria vs Spezia kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Sampdoria 1 - 0 Spezia.
Where is Sampdoria vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Spezia part of?
Sampdoria vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 42% chance of winning, Spezia a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sampdoria and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Spezia?
Record (9 meetings): Sampdoria 2W | Draws 3 | Spezia 4W.
What form are Sampdoria and Spezia in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Spezia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sampdoria's attack at 0.96x the league average against Spezia's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
42%
2.40
30%
3.36
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.29
1.01
Spezia xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
8%
12.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.3 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.01 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sampdoria come into this having played 60 games, going 13W 24D 23L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Spezia sit at 1.47 PPG from 60 outings (23W 19D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spezia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sampdoria's home form reads 11W 10D 8L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Sampdoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Spezia have taken 1.24 points per game from 29 outings (8W 12D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.33 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Spezia in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 13W 24D 23L in their last 60 games (1.05 PPG), while Spezia have gone 23W 19D 18L in their last 60 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Spezia away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.48 PPG; Spezia away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Spezia in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Spezia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sampdoria's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sampdoria
3
Draws
4
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Spezia?
From 10 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 3, Spezia have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sampdoria 1-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Spezia?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 38%, Spezia 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Sampdoria and 31% for Spezia.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Spezia in 41%; Sampdoria have failed to score in 34% of games; Spezia in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 41% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Sampdoria's recent games and 31% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Spezia tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Spezia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Spezia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Spezia 1-0 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.27 xG and Spezia 1.01 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Spezia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.96 / defence 1.03 against Spezia attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 42% | Draw 30% | Spezia 29%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 38%, Spezia 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Spezia's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Spezia arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Sampdoria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.