Sampdoria 2-1 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sampdoria face Spezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Spezia at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B (matchday 14). Kick-off is Friday 24 November 2023 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Sampdoria — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Sampdoria have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Spezia have recorded 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Spezia's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Sampdoria) versus 0.90 (Spezia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Sampdoria, 2 for Spezia and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2023, ended Sampdoria 1–1 Spezia — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Spezia trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 47% versus Spezia 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 41% | Spezia 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.43 xG and Spezia 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.948 / defence 1.095 | Spezia attack 0.728 / defence 1.358. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.189. Spezia's defence rating of 1.358 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sampdoria's projected output up. Spezia's attack rating of 0.728 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Sampdoria's last 13 games and Spezia's last 13.
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 47% | Draw 29% | Spezia 24%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.13 | Draw 3.41 | Spezia 4.21. Sampdoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sampdoria as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sampdoria 60% (last 10 home games) | Spezia 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 14 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 24 November 2023 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 47% | Draw 29% | Spezia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Sampdoria 1.43 / Spezia 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.948 / def 1.095 | Spezia attack 0.728 / def 1.358 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Spezia xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sampdoria vs Spezia FAQs
What time does Sampdoria vs Spezia kick off?
Sampdoria vs Spezia kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 24 November 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Sampdoria 2 - 1 Spezia.
Where is Sampdoria vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Spezia part of?
Sampdoria vs Spezia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 14) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 47% chance of winning, Spezia a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sampdoria and Spezia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Sampdoria vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sampdoria's attack at 0.95x the league average against Spezia's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sampdoria's last 13 games and Spezia's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
47%
2.13
29%
3.41
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.38
0.95
Spezia xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
6%
17.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.6 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sampdoria vs Spezia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Sampdoria and 0.95 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sampdoria come into this having played 51 games, going 7W 13D 31L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Spezia sit at 0.75 PPG from 51 outings (6W 20D 25L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 0.67 PPG, Spezia on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sampdoria's home form reads 3W 7D 15L across their last 25 home games, a 0.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Spezia have taken 0.68 points per game from their last 25 away games (3W 8D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 0.80 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Spezia
Blended
Sampdoria (Home) vs Spezia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sampdoria
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Sampdoria vs Spezia Form FAQs
What form are Sampdoria and Spezia in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 7W 13D 31L in their last 51 games (0.67 PPG), while Spezia have gone 6W 20D 25L in their last 51 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Spezia away?
Spezia's away record (0.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.64 PPG; Spezia away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. They cover more than one competition — Serie A, Serie B. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sampdoria's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sampdoria
3
Draws
4
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Sampdoria vs Spezia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Spezia?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sampdoria have won 3, Spezia have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Spezia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: Sampdoria 1-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Spezia?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 44%, Spezia 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Sampdoria) and 48% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria have failed to score in 48% of games; Spezia in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sampdoria vs Spezia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sampdoria and Spezia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 44% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sampdoria and Spezia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Sampdoria's recent games and 48% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Spezia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 72% of Spezia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Spezia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Spezia 2-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.43 xG and Spezia 0.95 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Spezia attack 0.73 / defence 1.36, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 47% | Draw 29% | Spezia 24%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 41%, Spezia 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Spezia's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 0.67 PPG, Spezia 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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