Reggina 0-4 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggina at 43%, yet in-form Cagliari provide a compelling counter-argument — this Reggina vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cagliari make the trip to Stadio Oreste Granillo to face Reggina in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 March 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Reggina (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Reggina's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Oreste Granillo this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Cagliari have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Cagliari's away record: 0W 6D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Cagliari arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Reggina, 0 for Cagliari and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Reggina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 38% versus Cagliari 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggina 44% | Cagliari 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.14 xG and Cagliari 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 0.947 / defence 1.153 | Cagliari attack 0.715 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 0.961. Data: 66 Reggina games / 29 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 43% | Draw 32% | Cagliari 25%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Cagliari 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reggina are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cagliari (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggina if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Reggina 50% | Cagliari 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 43% | Draw 32% | Cagliari 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Reggina 1.14 / Cagliari 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 0.947 / def 1.153 | Cagliari attack 0.715 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.154 / away 0.961 • Poisson stance: Reggina (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Cagliari xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Cagliari kick off?
Reggina vs Cagliari kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Cagliari?
Reggina 0 - 4 Cagliari.
Where is Reggina vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Cagliari part of?
Reggina vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 43% chance of winning, Cagliari a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Reggina and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Cagliari?
Record (1 meetings): Reggina 0W | Draws 1 | Cagliari 0W.
What form are Reggina and Cagliari in?
Reggina (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Cagliari (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Reggina's attack at 0.95x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.71x) against Reggina's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 66/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
43%
2.32
32%
3.13
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Reggina xG
Total xG
1.93
0.79
Cagliari xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
8%
12.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 11.5 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Reggina and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Reggina and 0.79 for Cagliari, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Reggina's recent record stands at 26W 12D 28L from 66 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 16W 23D 27L across 66 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-D-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Reggina against 1.08 for Cagliari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Reggina have managed 16W 4D 13L from 33 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 4W 14D 15L across 33 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reggina are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.00 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 26W 12D 28L in their last 66 games (1.36 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 16W 23D 27L in their last 66 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Cagliari away?
Reggina's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 1.58 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Reggina or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cagliari in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Reggina
1
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Cagliari?
From 2 meetings on record, Reggina have won 0, Cagliari have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Reggina 0-4 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Reggina and Cagliari?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 36%, Cagliari 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Reggina) and 39% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Reggina keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Reggina have failed to score in 36% of games; Cagliari in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Reggina's recent matches and 48% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Reggina's recent games and 39% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Cagliari tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cagliari run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Reggina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Reggina 0-4 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.14 xG and Cagliari 0.79 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Reggina fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Cagliari outscored their 0.79 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Cagliari attack 0.71 / defence 1.04, drawn from 66/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 43% | Draw 32% | Cagliari 25%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Cagliari win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 44%, Cagliari 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cagliari's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggina 1.36 PPG, Cagliari 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Reggina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.