Reggiana 0-1 Cesena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reggiana at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggiana vs Cesena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Reggiana welcome Cesena to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 9 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Reggiana have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Reggiana at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cesena stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Cesena's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Reggiana are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Reggiana, 0 for Cesena and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2024, ended Reggiana 1–1 Cesena — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Reggiana in-play and half-time data (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Cesena in-play and half-time data (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 42% versus Cesena 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 38% | Cesena 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.49 xG and Cesena 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.886 / defence 1.003 | Cesena attack 0.928 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.095. Cesena's defence rating of 1.389 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Reggiana's projected output up. Data: built from Reggiana's last 62 games and Cesena's last 24.
Result probabilities: Reggiana 46% | Draw 29% | Cesena 24%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.16 | Draw 3.40 | Cesena 4.13. Reggiana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reggiana are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggiana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Reggiana 40% (last 10 home games) | Cesena 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, matchday 25 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 46% | Draw 29% | Cesena 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Reggiana 1.49 / Cesena 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.886 / def 1.003 | Cesena attack 0.928 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Cesena xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reggiana vs Cesena FAQs
What time does Reggiana vs Cesena kick off?
Reggiana vs Cesena kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 9 February 2025 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Cesena?
Reggiana 0 - 1 Cesena.
Where is Reggiana vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Cesena part of?
Reggiana vs Cesena is a Serie B fixture (matchday 25) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 46% chance of winning, Cesena a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Reggiana and Cesena will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Reggiana vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Reggiana's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Cesena's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Cesena's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Reggiana's last 62 games and Cesena's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.40
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.51
1.02
Cesena xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
5%
18.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reggiana vs Cesena Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.02 for Cesena, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Cesena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reggiana come into this having played 24 games, going 7W 7D 10L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Cesena sit at 1.25 PPG from 24 outings (8W 6D 10L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggiana on 1.17 PPG, Cesena on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Reggiana's home form reads 4W 4D 4L across their last 12 home games, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Cesena have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 12 away games (2W 2D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cesena's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggiana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Reggiana are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.33 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Cesena
Blended
Reggiana (Home) vs Cesena (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reggiana
Blended
Cesena
Blended
❓ Reggiana vs Cesena Form FAQs
What form are Reggiana and Cesena in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 7W 7D 10L in their last 24 games (1.17 PPG), while Cesena have gone 8W 6D 10L in their last 24 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Cesena away?
Reggiana's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.33 PPG; Cesena away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Cesena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cesena in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 17 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Reggiana's record when hosting Cesena specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Reggiana
1
Draws
2
Cesena
Recent Meetings
❓ Reggiana vs Cesena H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Cesena?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Reggiana have won 1, Cesena have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Cesena last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 January 2026: Reggiana 1-2 Cesena.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Cesena?
Cesena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 42%, Cesena 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Reggiana) and 50% (Cesena).
On the defensive side: Reggiana keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Reggiana have failed to score in 42% of games; Cesena in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reggiana vs Cesena Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reggiana and Cesena matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Reggiana's recent matches and 58% of Cesena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Reggiana and Cesena matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Reggiana's recent games and 50% of Cesena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Cesena matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Reggiana's recent matches and 75% of Cesena's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cesena defy the odds to beat Reggiana 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cesena beat Reggiana 0-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.49 xG and Cesena 1.02 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Reggiana fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.89 / defence 1.00 against Cesena attack 0.93 / defence 1.39, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 46% | Draw 29% | Cesena 24%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Cesena win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 38%, Cesena 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cesena's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.17 PPG, Cesena 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cesena win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Cesena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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