Reggiana 2-2 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggiana at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Reggiana face Carrarese.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Reggiana welcome Carrarese to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 22 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Reggiana — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Reggiana's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Carrarese have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Carrarese have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Reggiana) versus 1.10 (Carrarese). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Reggiana, 0 for Carrarese and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended Reggiana 0–0 Carrarese — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Reggiana trading profile (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Carrarese trading profile (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 42% versus Carrarese 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggiana 35% | Carrarese 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.20 xG and Carrarese 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.775 / defence 1.003 | Carrarese attack 0.704 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.078. Reggiana's attack rating of 0.775 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Carrarese's defence rating of 1.240 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Reggiana's projected output up. Carrarese's attack rating of 0.704 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from Reggiana's last 64 games and Carrarese's last 26.
Result probabilities: Reggiana 44% | Draw 35% | Carrarese 21%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.27 | Draw 2.89 | Carrarese 4.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggiana at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggiana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Reggiana's last 10 home games and Carrarese's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Reggiana 30% (last 10 home games) | Carrarese 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, matchday 27 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 44% | Draw 35% | Carrarese 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Reggiana 1.20 / Carrarese 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.775 / def 1.003 | Carrarese attack 0.704 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Carrarese xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reggiana vs Carrarese FAQs
What time does Reggiana vs Carrarese kick off?
Reggiana vs Carrarese kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 22 February 2025 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Carrarese?
Reggiana 2 - 2 Carrarese.
Where is Reggiana vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Carrarese part of?
Reggiana vs Carrarese is a Serie B fixture (matchday 27) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 44% chance of winning, Carrarese a 21% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Reggiana and Carrarese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Reggiana vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Reggiana's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Carrarese's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Reggiana's last 64 games and Carrarese's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
44%
2.27
35%
2.89
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Reggiana xG
Total xG
1.96
0.76
Carrarese xG
2.27
44%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
6%
15.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reggiana vs Carrarese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Reggiana and 0.76 for Carrarese, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reggiana's recent record stands at 7W 8D 11L from 26 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Carrarese, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 12L across 26 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggiana on 1.12 PPG, Carrarese on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Reggiana have managed 4W 4D 5L from their last 13 home games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carrarese's away record stands at 1W 3D 9L across their last 13 away games, a 0.46 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggiana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Reggiana are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 0.92 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
Reggiana (Home) vs Carrarese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reggiana
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Reggiana vs Carrarese Form FAQs
What form are Reggiana and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 7W 8D 11L in their last 26 games (1.12 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 8W 6D 12L in their last 26 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Carrarese away?
Reggiana's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.23 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.46 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Carrarese in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 12 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Reggiana's record when hosting Carrarese specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Reggiana
3
Draws
0
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Reggiana vs Carrarese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Carrarese?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Reggiana have won 1, Carrarese have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Carrarese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2026: Reggiana 2-0 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Carrarese?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 38%, Carrarese 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Reggiana) and 46% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Reggiana keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Reggiana have failed to score in 46% of games; Carrarese in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reggiana vs Carrarese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reggiana and Carrarese matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Reggiana's recent matches and 54% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Reggiana and Carrarese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Reggiana's recent games and 46% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Carrarese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Reggiana's recent matches and 62% of Carrarese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reggiana and Carrarese share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana and Carrarese finished level at 2-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.20 xG and Carrarese 0.76 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Reggiana beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Carrarese outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.78 / defence 1.00 against Carrarese attack 0.70 / defence 1.24, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 44% | Draw 35% | Carrarese 21%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 35%, Carrarese 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Carrarese's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.12 PPG, Carrarese 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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