Reggiana 1-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bari at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Reggiana face Bari.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Reggiana and Bari meet at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B (matchday 9). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Reggiana's record over their last 8 games: 1W 4D 3L (0.88 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings (25%).
Reggiana's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 1L across their last 3 home games (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bari have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 7D 2L. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Bari have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.88 for Reggiana, 1.00 for Bari — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Reggiana's last 3 home games and Bari's last 10 away games) — Reggiana have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Bari in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Reggiana — key trading statistics (last 8 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Bari — key trading statistics (last 8 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 50% versus Bari 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 62% | Bari 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 0.91 xG and Bari 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.899 / defence 1.206 | Bari attack 0.925 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.179. Reggiana's defence rating of 1.206 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bari's projected output up. Data: built from Reggiana's last 8 games and Bari's last 46.
Result probabilities: Reggiana 22% | Draw 36% | Bari 42%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 4.54 | Draw 2.78 | Bari 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Reggiana 67% (last 3 home games) | Bari 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, matchday 9 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 22% | Draw 36% | Bari 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Reggiana 0.91 / Bari 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.899 / def 1.206 | Bari attack 0.925 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Bari (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Bari xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reggiana vs Bari FAQs
What time does Reggiana vs Bari kick off?
Reggiana vs Bari kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Bari?
Reggiana 1 - 1 Bari.
Where is Reggiana vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Bari part of?
Reggiana vs Bari is a Serie B fixture (matchday 9) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 22% chance of winning, Bari a 42% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Reggiana and Bari will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Reggiana vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reggiana's attack rating (0.90) and Bari's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bari's attack (0.93x) against Reggiana's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from Reggiana's last 8 games and Bari's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
22%
4.54
36%
2.78
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.23
1.31
Bari xG
4.54
22%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
6%
16.90
17%
5.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 14.2 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reggiana vs Bari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.31 for Bari, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reggiana's recent record stands at 1W 4D 3L from 8 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Bari, meanwhile, have gone 1W 6D 1L across 8 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-D-D-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Reggiana against 1.12 for Bari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Reggiana have managed 0W 2D 1L from their last 3 home games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bari's away record stands at 0W 2D 1L across their last 3 away games, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bari's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Reggiana are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 0.88 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bari in 62%.
Defensively: Bari in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Bari
Blended
Reggiana (Home) vs Bari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reggiana
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Reggiana vs Bari Form FAQs
What form are Reggiana and Bari in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 1W 4D 3L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while Bari have gone 1W 6D 1L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Bari away?
Reggiana's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 0.67 PPG; Bari away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Bari in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Reggiana and Bari, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bari won Bari 4-1 Reggiana on 14 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggiana have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Reggiana
3
Draws
1
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Reggiana vs Bari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Bari?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Reggiana have won 2, Bari have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Bari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Bari 4-1 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Bari?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Reggiana, 67% for Bari — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Reggiana) and 33% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Reggiana keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bari in 33%; Reggiana have failed to score in 33% of games; Bari in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reggiana vs Bari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reggiana and Bari matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Reggiana's games and 67% of Bari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Reggiana and Bari matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Reggiana's recent games and 33% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Bari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Reggiana's recent matches and 67% of Bari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reggiana and Bari share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 9, as Reggiana and Bari drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 0.91 xG and Bari 1.31 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.90 / defence 1.21 against Bari attack 0.93 / defence 0.93, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 22% | Draw 36% | Bari 42%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 62%, Bari 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Bari's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 0.88 PPG, Bari 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie B fixtures — matchday 9
All Serie B fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →