Pordenone 1-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pordenone at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pordenone vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 17 as Pordenone welcome Cosenza to Stadio Guido Teghil. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Pordenone have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pordenone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Guido Teghil, Pordenone have gone 1W 2D 5L this season (8 games, 0.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Cosenza — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cosenza have gone 0W 2D 6L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Pordenone) versus 0.50 (Cosenza). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Pordenone trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Cosenza trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pordenone 50% versus Cosenza 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pordenone 50% | Cosenza 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pordenone 1.52 xG and Cosenza 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pordenone attack 0.889 / defence 1.435 | Cosenza attack 0.688 / defence 1.745. League average goals — home 0.978 / away 1.199. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.745 — this is suppressing Pordenone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Pordenone games / 16 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pordenone 44% | Draw 26% | Cosenza 29%. Fair-value odds: Pordenone 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Cosenza 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pordenone as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pordenone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pordenone 50% | Cosenza 62% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pordenone vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Guido Teghil • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pordenone 44% | Draw 26% | Cosenza 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Pordenone 1.52 / Cosenza 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Pordenone attack 0.889 / def 1.435 | Cosenza attack 0.688 / def 1.745 | league avg home 0.978 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Pordenone (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Pordenone xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Cosenza xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pordenone vs Cosenza kick off?
Pordenone vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What was the final score in Pordenone vs Cosenza?
Pordenone 1 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Pordenone vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What competition is Pordenone vs Cosenza part of?
Pordenone vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pordenone vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Pordenone a 44% chance of winning, Cosenza a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pordenone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pordenone vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Pordenone and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Pordenone vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Cosenza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pordenone and Cosenza in?
Pordenone (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Cosenza (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pordenone's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (1.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Pordenone's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pordenone Win
44%
2.25
26%
3.79
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Pordenone xG
Total xG
2.70
1.18
Cosenza xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
6%
15.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pordenone vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Pordenone and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Pordenone and 1.18 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Pordenone vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pordenone's recent record stands at 1W 4D 11L from 16 games, a 0.44 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Pordenone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 9L across 16 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cosenza by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pordenone heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pordenone have managed 1W 2D 5L from 8 games — 0.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 0W 2D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Pordenone are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.88 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pordenone
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pordenone and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Pordenone have gone 1W 4D 11L in their last 16 games (0.44 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 4W 3D 9L in their last 16 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pordenone at home or Cosenza away?
Pordenone's home record (0.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pordenone at home: 0.62 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pordenone
1
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Cosenza?
From 2 meetings on record, Pordenone have won 0, Cosenza have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pordenone and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2022, when Cosenza 3-1 Pordenone.
Who has won more matches between Pordenone and Cosenza?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pordenone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pordenone 50%, Cosenza 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pordenone) and 50% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Pordenone have failed to score in 38% of games; Cosenza in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pordenone home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pordenone play Cosenza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Pordenone's games and 62% of Cosenza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pordenone vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pordenone's recent games and 50% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pordenone and Cosenza tend to score early?
Pordenone have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pordenone and Cosenza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pordenone and Cosenza finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Guido Teghil, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pordenone 1.52 xG and Cosenza 1.18 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pordenone attack 0.89 / defence 1.44 against Cosenza attack 0.69 / defence 1.75, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pordenone 44% | Draw 26% | Cosenza 29%, with Pordenone to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pordenone 50%, Cosenza 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pordenone's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Cosenza's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cosenza arrived the stronger side — 0.94 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pordenone (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.