Pordenone 1-4 Benevento – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Benevento at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pordenone vs Benevento encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Pordenone and Benevento meet at Stadio Guido Teghil in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Monday 18 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Pordenone's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Pordenone's home record at Stadio Guido Teghil: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Pordenone are significantly better at Stadio Guido Teghil than their overall form suggests.

Benevento have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling in Serie B this season, Benevento have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Benevento arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Pordenone, 1 for Benevento and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Benevento winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Pordenone half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pordenone 47% versus Benevento 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pordenone 35% | Benevento 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pordenone 0.83 xG and Benevento 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pordenone attack 0.782 / defence 1.290 | Benevento attack 0.915 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.036 / away 1.039. Pordenone's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Pordenone games / 34 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pordenone 22% | Draw 35% | Benevento 43%. Fair-value odds: Pordenone 4.55 | Draw 2.86 | Benevento 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pordenone 50% | Benevento 30% BTTS from recent games.

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