Pisa 1-0 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spal at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Spal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani plays host to Pisa versus Spal in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 22 August 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.42 xG and Spal 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Spal attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.427 / away 1.005. Data: 0 Pisa games / 0 Spal games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pisa 15% | Draw 36% | Spal 49%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 6.67 | Draw 2.78 | Spal 2.04. Spal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 17% | BTTS probability 21% | Total xG 1.40. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 83% probability — total xG of 1.40 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 79% — Pisa's lower xG of 0.42 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 21%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spal are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spal if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 17% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 15% | Draw 36% | Spal 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 17% | BTTS 21% | xG Pisa 0.42 / Spal 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Spal attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.427 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Spal (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.42
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Spal xG
21%
BTTS
41%
Over 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Spal kick off?
Pisa vs Spal kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Spal?
Pisa 1 - 0 Spal.
Where is Pisa vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Spal part of?
Pisa vs Spal is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 15% chance of winning, Spal a 49% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Spal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 21% probability that both Pisa and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 17%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Spal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pisa and Spal in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pisa's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Spal's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.42. Flip it around — Spal's attack (0.85x) against Pisa's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 26.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (22.9%), 0-2 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 61% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spal Win
15%
6.50
36%
2.79
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
24.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
24.2%
Away win
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.42
Pisa xG
Total xG
1.40
0.98
Spal xG
6.50
15%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
41%
Over 1.5
2.44
59%
Under 1.5
1.69
17%
Over 2.5
5.88
83%
Under 2.5
1.20
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
21%
BTTS Yes
4.68
79%
BTTS No
1.27
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
66%
1.52
Win to Nil
6%
17.35
32%
3.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24.7 | 24.2 | 11.9 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 26.0%.
How many goals are Pisa and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 0.42 expected goals for Pisa and 0.98 for Spal, a combined total of 1.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Pre-Season
Spal
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Spal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Pisa
1
Draws
1
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Spal?
From 4 meetings on record, Pisa have won 2, Spal have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Pisa 1-2 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Spal?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Pisa defy the odds to beat Spal 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Spal 1-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.42 xG and Spal 0.98 xG, a combined 1.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Spal landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Spal attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 15% | Draw 36% | Spal 49%, with Spal to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Pisa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 17%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 41% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 21% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.