Pisa 2-0 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pisa face Sampdoria.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sampdoria travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Pisa in Serie B (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pisa stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pisa's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sampdoria — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Sampdoria have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pisa at 1.10 PPG versus Sampdoria's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Pisa's last 10 home games and Sampdoria's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Pisa, 0 for Sampdoria and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2023, ended Pisa 2–0 Sampdoria — a Pisa win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Pisa trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Sampdoria trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 59% versus Sampdoria 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 44% | Sampdoria 48%). Note also that Sampdoria surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Pisa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.64 xG and Sampdoria 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.952 / defence 1.149 | Sampdoria attack 1.136 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.215. Sampdoria's defence rating of 1.306 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pisa's projected output up. Data: built from Pisa's last 61 games and Sampdoria's last 23.
Result probabilities: Pisa 39% | Draw 25% | Sampdoria 36%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.59 | Draw 4.02 | Sampdoria 2.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.64 / 1.59) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pisa's last 10 home games and Sampdoria's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pisa 80% (last 10 home games) | Sampdoria 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, matchday 24 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 39% | Draw 25% | Sampdoria 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Pisa 1.64 / Sampdoria 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.952 / def 1.149 | Sampdoria attack 1.136 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Pisa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Sampdoria xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pisa vs Sampdoria FAQs
What time does Pisa vs Sampdoria kick off?
Pisa vs Sampdoria kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Sampdoria?
Pisa 2 - 0 Sampdoria.
Where is Pisa vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Sampdoria part of?
Pisa vs Sampdoria is a Serie B fixture (matchday 24) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 39% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Pisa and Sampdoria will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pisa vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pisa's attack rating (0.95) and Sampdoria's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pisa's last 61 games and Sampdoria's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
39%
2.59
25%
4.02
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Pisa xG
Total xG
3.22
1.59
Sampdoria xG
2.59
39%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
8%
12.63
7%
14.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pisa vs Sampdoria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Pisa and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Pisa and 1.59 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Pisa have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 17W 23D 21L record — D-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Sampdoria's form line: 11W 15D 35L from 61 games, 0.79 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Pisa are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sampdoria.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pisa have posted 1.23 PPG from their last 30 home games (9W 10D 11L).
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 6W 6D 18L from their last 30 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.90 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
Pisa (Home) vs Sampdoria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pisa
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Pisa vs Sampdoria Form FAQs
What form are Pisa and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 17W 23D 21L in their last 61 games (1.21 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 11W 15D 35L in their last 61 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Sampdoria away?
Pisa's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.23 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 29 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pisa have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Nov 2024, when Pisa won Pisa 3-0 Sampdoria.
Pisa's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Pisa
0
Draws
0
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Pisa vs Sampdoria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Sampdoria?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Pisa have won 4, Sampdoria have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Sampdoria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 December 2024: Sampdoria 0-1 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Sampdoria?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 67%, Sampdoria 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Pisa) and 53% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pisa vs Sampdoria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pisa and Sampdoria matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Pisa's games and 57% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pisa and Sampdoria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Pisa's recent games and 53% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Sampdoria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Pisa's recent matches and 73% of Sampdoria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sampdoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Sampdoria 2-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.64 xG and Sampdoria 1.59 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sampdoria landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Sampdoria attack 1.14 / defence 1.31, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 39% | Draw 25% | Sampdoria 36%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 44%, Sampdoria 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Sampdoria's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.79. Form held, and they took the win. Pisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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