Pisa 1-2 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 36%, yet in-form Parma provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pisa vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Parma make the trip to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to face Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Tuesday 29 August 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pisa have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Parma (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Parma have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Parma's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Parma are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Pisa 1W, Parma 0W, 3D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2023, ended 1–0 with Pisa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 54% versus Parma 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 44% | Parma 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.21 xG and Parma 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.024 / defence 1.059 | Parma attack 1.032 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.035. Data: 39 Pisa games / 40 Parma games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pisa 36% | Draw 31% | Parma 32%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Parma 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Parma (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 0.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Pisa 70% | Parma 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Aug 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 36% | Draw 31% | Parma 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Pisa 1.21 / Parma 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.024 / def 1.059 | Parma attack 1.032 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Pisa (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Parma xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Parma kick off?
Pisa vs Parma kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 29 August 2023 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Parma?
Pisa 1 - 2 Parma.
Where is Pisa vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Parma part of?
Pisa vs Parma is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 36% chance of winning, Parma a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Pisa and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Parma?
Record (4 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 3 | Parma 0W.
What form are Pisa and Parma in?
Pisa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Parma (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pisa's attack rating (1.02) and Parma's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Parma's attack (1.03x) against Pisa's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
The sample (39/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
36%
2.76
31%
3.20
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.34
1.13
Parma xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
10%
10.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.9 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Pisa and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Pisa and 1.13 for Parma, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pisa come into this having played 39 games, going 12W 14D 13L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.62 PPG from 39 outings (18W 9D 12L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Pisa against 1.62 for Parma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pisa's home form reads 7W 5D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (6W 7D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.31 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Parma in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Parma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Parma in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 12W 14D 13L in their last 39 games (1.28 PPG), while Parma have gone 18W 9D 12L in their last 39 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Parma away?
Pisa's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.37 PPG; Parma away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Pisa or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Parma in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Parma have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Pisa
3
Draws
4
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Parma?
From 8 meetings on record, Pisa have won 1, Parma have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Parma 1-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 58%, Parma 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Pisa) and 37% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Pisa have failed to score in 26% of games; Parma in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Pisa's recent matches and 47% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Pisa's recent games and 37% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Parma tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Parma in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Parma defy the odds to beat Pisa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Pisa 1-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.21 xG and Parma 1.13 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Parma outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.02 / defence 1.06 against Parma attack 1.03 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 36% | Draw 31% | Parma 32%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 44%, Parma 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Parma's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.28 PPG, Parma 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.