Pisa 3-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pisa and Cosenza meet at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 3W 4D 3L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Cosenza (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Pisa, 0 for Cosenza and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Pisa — key trading statistics (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Cosenza — key trading statistics (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 55% versus Cosenza 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 39% | Cosenza 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.63 xG and Cosenza 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.011 / defence 1.036 | Cosenza attack 0.734 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.117. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Pisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Pisa games / 49 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 55% | Draw 26% | Cosenza 19%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Cosenza 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Pisa (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 50% | Cosenza 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 55% | Draw 26% | Cosenza 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Pisa 1.63 / Cosenza 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.011 / def 1.036 | Cosenza attack 0.734 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Pisa (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Cosenza xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Cosenza kick off?
Pisa vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Cosenza?
Pisa 3 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Pisa vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Cosenza part of?
Pisa vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 55% chance of winning, Cosenza a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pisa and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cosenza?
Record (2 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 1 | Cosenza 0W.
What form are Pisa and Cosenza in?
Pisa (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Cosenza (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pisa's attack rating (1.01) and Cosenza's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.73x) against Pisa's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.84
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.48
0.85
Cosenza xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
4%
27.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 11.6 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Pisa and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Pisa and 0.85 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Cosenza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pisa's recent record stands at 19W 18D 14L from 51 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 26L across 51 games — 0.96 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cosenza heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 10W 10D 4L from 24 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 1W 10D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.54 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pisa are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.94 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 19W 18D 14L in their last 51 games (1.47 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 12W 13D 26L in their last 51 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Cosenza away?
Pisa's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.67 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.54 PPG.
Have Pisa or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cosenza in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pisa won 0-3 on 29 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Pisa
3
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cosenza?
From 8 meetings on record, Pisa have won 3, Cosenza have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Cosenza 0-3 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Cosenza?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 50%, Cosenza 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Pisa) and 38% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Cosenza in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pisa's recent matches and 54% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Pisa's recent games and 38% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Cosenza tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Cosenza 3-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.63 xG and Cosenza 0.85 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.01 / defence 1.04 against Cosenza attack 0.73 / defence 1.29, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 55% | Draw 26% | Cosenza 19%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 39%, Cosenza 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Cosenza's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.