Pisa 3-4 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 44%, yet in-form Monza provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pisa vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pisa and Monza meet at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Final. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 May 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Pisa (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Monza's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Monza have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Monza are 0.70 PPG clear of Pisa in recent Serie B fixtures (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pisa lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Monza winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 49% versus Monza 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 32% | Monza 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.35 xG and Monza 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.995 / defence 0.960 | Monza attack 0.982 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.071 / away 1.077. Monza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Pisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Pisa games / 38 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 44% | Draw 29% | Monza 27%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Monza 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Monza (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 40% | Monza 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Final | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 44% | Draw 29% | Monza 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Pisa 1.35 / Monza 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.995 / def 0.960 | Monza attack 0.982 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.071 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Pisa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Monza xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Monza kick off?
Pisa vs Monza kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 29 May 2022 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Monza?
Pisa 3 - 4 Monza.
Where is Pisa vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Monza part of?
Pisa vs Monza is a Promotion Play-offs - Final fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 44% chance of winning, Monza a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Pisa and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Monza?
Record (3 meetings): Pisa 2W | Draws 0 | Monza 1W.
What form are Pisa and Monza in?
Pisa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Monza (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pisa's attack rating (0.99) and Monza's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.98x) against Pisa's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
44%
2.30
29%
3.45
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.36
1.02
Monza xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
7%
13.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Pisa and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Pisa and 1.02 for Monza, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, Pisa have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 19W 13D 9L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Monza's form line: 22W 10D 9L from 41 games, 1.85 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Pisa against 1.85 for Monza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pisa have posted 2.05 PPG from 20 outings (11W 8D 1L).
On the road, Monza have gone 7W 6D 7L from 20 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.61 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Monza in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Monza in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 19W 13D 9L in their last 41 games (1.71 PPG), while Monza have gone 22W 10D 9L in their last 41 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Monza away?
Pisa's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 2.05 PPG; Monza away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Pisa or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Monza in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Monza have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Pisa
0
Draws
2
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Monza?
From 4 meetings on record, Pisa have won 2, Monza have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2022, when Pisa 3-4 Monza.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 45%, Monza 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Pisa) and 45% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Pisa's recent matches and 55% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Pisa's recent games and 45% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Monza tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Monza in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Monza defy the odds to beat Pisa 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Pisa 3-4 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Promotion Play-offs - Final, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.35 xG and Monza 1.02 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Monza outscored their 1.02 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.99 / defence 0.96 against Monza attack 0.98 / defence 1.26, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 44% | Draw 29% | Monza 27%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Monza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 32%, Monza 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Monza's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.71 PPG, Monza 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monza (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.