Pisa 1-0 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Frosinone travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Pisa. The game is scheduled for Thursday 1 May 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Pisa have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Frosinone — All Games: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Frosinone's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pisa 1.60 PPG, Frosinone 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pisa register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Frosinone in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Pisa have won 1, Frosinone 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Pisa trading profile (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Frosinone trading profile (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 64% and Frosinone 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 56% | Frosinone 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.47 xG and Frosinone 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.170 / defence 0.971 | Frosinone attack 0.917 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.186. Data: 72 Pisa games / 34 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 45% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 26%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Frosinone 3.85. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 60% | Frosinone 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Thursday 1 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 45% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Pisa 1.47 / Frosinone 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.170 / def 0.971 | Frosinone attack 0.917 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Pisa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Frosinone xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Frosinone kick off?
Pisa vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 1 May 2025 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Frosinone?
Pisa 1 - 0 Frosinone.
Where is Pisa vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Frosinone part of?
Pisa vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 45% chance of winning, Frosinone a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Pisa and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Frosinone?
Record (5 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 2 | Frosinone 2W.
What form are Pisa and Frosinone in?
Pisa (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Frosinone (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pisa's attack rating (1.17) and Frosinone's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
45%
2.22
29%
3.40
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.53
1.06
Frosinone xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
6%
17.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Pisa and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Pisa and 1.06 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa come into this having played 72 games, going 31W 20D 21L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.03 PPG from 72 outings (16W 26D 30L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-D across their last five.
Pisa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Frosinone — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Pisa's home form reads 17W 11D 7L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 0.80 points per game from 35 outings (5W 13D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.10 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Frosinone in 61%.
Last 72 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 31W 20D 21L in their last 72 games (1.57 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 16W 26D 30L in their last 72 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Frosinone away?
Pisa's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.77 PPG; Frosinone away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Pisa's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Pisa
2
Draws
2
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Frosinone?
From 6 meetings on record, Pisa have won 2, Frosinone have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2025, when Pisa 1-0 Frosinone.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 71%, Frosinone 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Pisa) and 43% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Frosinone in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Frosinone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Pisa's games and 57% of Frosinone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Pisa's recent games and 43% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Frosinone tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Frosinone 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Frosinone 1-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.47 xG and Frosinone 1.06 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Frosinone landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.17 / defence 0.97 against Frosinone attack 0.92 / defence 0.97, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 45% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 26%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 56%, Frosinone 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Frosinone's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.