Pisa 1-0 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Pisa take on Cittadella.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Cittadella travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Pisa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 March 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pisa — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Pisa at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cittadella have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cittadella's away record: 3W 7D 0L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pisa 1.60 PPG, Cittadella 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Pisa, 1 for Cittadella and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Cittadella winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Pisa in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Cittadella in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 47% versus Cittadella 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 30% | Cittadella 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.01 xG and Cittadella 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.037 / defence 1.043 | Cittadella attack 0.818 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.040 / away 1.054. Data: 30 Pisa games / 30 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 34% | Draw 39% | Cittadella 28%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.94 | Draw 2.56 | Cittadella 3.57. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 50% | Cittadella 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 34% | Draw 39% | Cittadella 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 41% | xG Pisa 1.01 / Cittadella 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.037 / def 1.043 | Cittadella attack 0.818 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.040 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Cittadella xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Cittadella kick off?
Pisa vs Cittadella kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Cittadella?
Pisa 1 - 0 Cittadella.
Where is Pisa vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Cittadella part of?
Pisa vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 34% chance of winning, Cittadella a 28% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Pisa and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cittadella?
Record (1 meetings): Pisa 0W | Draws 0 | Cittadella 1W.
What form are Pisa and Cittadella in?
Pisa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Cittadella (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pisa's attack rating (1.04) and Cittadella's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cittadella's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.98
39%
2.57
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Pisa xG
Total xG
1.91
0.90
Cittadella xG
2.98
34%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
10%
10.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Pisa and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Pisa and 0.90 for Cittadella, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pisa's recent record stands at 15W 10D 5L from 30 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Cittadella, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 8L across 30 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.83 PPG, Cittadella on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 8W 6D 1L from 15 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cittadella's away record stands at 5W 7D 3L across 15 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 1.10 scored and 0.97 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Cittadella in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Cittadella
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 15W 10D 5L in their last 30 games (1.83 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 11W 11D 8L in their last 30 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Cittadella away?
Pisa's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 2.00 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Pisa or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Cittadella in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pisa and Cittadella runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pisa's record when hosting Cittadella specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Pisa
1
Draws
4
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cittadella?
From 8 meetings on record, Pisa have won 3, Cittadella have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Pisa 0-1 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Cittadella?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 47%, Cittadella 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Pisa and 20% for Cittadella.
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Cittadella in 40%; Cittadella in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Cittadella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Pisa's recent matches and 47% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Pisa's recent games and 20% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Cittadella tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Cittadella 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Cittadella 1-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.01 xG and Cittadella 0.90 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cittadella landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.04 / defence 1.04 against Cittadella attack 0.82 / defence 0.94, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 34% | Draw 39% | Cittadella 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Pisa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 30%, Cittadella 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cittadella's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.83 PPG, Cittadella 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.