Pisa 2-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Pisa at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pisa face Brescia.

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Analysis & Preview

Brescia travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Pisa in Serie B (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Pisa stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Pisa's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Pisa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Brescia — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Brescia have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pisa 1.40 PPG, Brescia 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Pisa's last 10 home games and Brescia's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Pisa, 1 for Brescia and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Apr 2024, ended Pisa 1–3 Brescia — a Brescia win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Pisa in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Brescia in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 72% and Brescia 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 56% | Brescia 35%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Pisa surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Brescia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.75 xG and Brescia 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.303 / defence 1.012 | Brescia attack 0.918 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.139. Pisa carry an above-average attack rating of 1.303 — their 1.75 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Pisa's last 43 games and Brescia's last 43.

Result probabilities: Pisa 52% | Draw 26% | Brescia 21%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 1.92 | Draw 3.78 | Brescia 4.67. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pisa's last 10 home games and Brescia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pisa 80% (last 10 home games) | Brescia 70% (last 10 away games).

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