Pescara 0-2 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monza at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pescara vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia plays host to Pescara versus Monza in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 9 November 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pescara have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pescara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Pescara have gone 1W 4D 1L this season (6 games, 1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Monza (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Monza are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Pescara — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Monza — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pescara 82% and Monza 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pescara 73% | Monza 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pescara 1.13 xG and Monza 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pescara attack 1.026 / defence 1.265 | Monza attack 1.081 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.053. Data: 11 Pescara games / 11 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pescara 27% | Draw 32% | Monza 41%. Fair-value odds: Pescara 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Monza 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monza if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pescara 83% | Monza 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pescara vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pescara 27% | Draw 32% | Monza 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Pescara 1.13 / Monza 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Pescara attack 1.026 / def 1.265 | Monza attack 1.081 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Monza (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Pescara xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Monza xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pescara vs Monza kick off?
Pescara vs Monza kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What was the final score in Pescara vs Monza?
Pescara 0 - 2 Monza.
Where is Pescara vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What competition is Pescara vs Monza part of?
Pescara vs Monza is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pescara vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Pescara a 27% chance of winning, Monza a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pescara vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Pescara and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Pescara vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Monza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pescara and Monza in?
Pescara (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Monza (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pescara's attack at 1.03x the league average against Monza's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Monza's attack (1.08x) against Pescara's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
27%
3.73
32%
3.14
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Pescara xG
Total xG
2.57
1.44
Monza xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
6%
15.75
13%
7.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pescara vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Pescara and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Pescara and 1.44 for Monza, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Pescara vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pescara's recent record stands at 1W 5D 5L from 11 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Pescara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza, meanwhile, have gone 7W 2D 2L across 11 games — 2.09 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Monza by 1.36 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pescara heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pescara have managed 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.73 PPG overall — Pescara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Monza's away record stands at 2W 2D 1L across 5 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monza's season.
Attack vs Defence
Pescara are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.36 scored and 0.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games.
Defensively: Monza in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pescara
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pescara and Monza in coming into this match?
Pescara have gone 1W 5D 5L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while Monza have gone 7W 2D 2L in their last 11 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pescara at home or Monza away?
Monza's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pescara at home: 1.40 PPG; Monza away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Pescara or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pescara have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Monza in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pescara
0
Draws
2
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Monza?
From 2 meetings on record, Pescara have won 0, Monza have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pescara and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Monza 3-0 Pescara.
Who has won more matches between Pescara and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Pescara, 60% for Monza — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Pescara) and 40% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Monza in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pescara home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pescara play Monza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Pescara's games and 60% of Monza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pescara vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Pescara's recent games and 40% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pescara and Monza tend to score early?
Pescara have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Monza in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monza cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pescara.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Pescara 0-2 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.13 xG and Monza 1.44 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pescara fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 1.03 / defence 1.26 against Monza attack 1.08 / defence 0.81, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pescara 27% | Draw 32% | Monza 41%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 73%, Monza 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pescara's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did not.
Monza's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 0.73. Form held, and they took the win. Pescara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.