Perugia 2-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Perugia vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 18 as Perugia welcome Venezia to Stadio Renato Curi. Kick-off is set for Monday 19 December 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Perugia have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Perugia's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Renato Curi this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Curi.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Venezia have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Perugia at 0.90 PPG versus Venezia's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Perugia trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Venezia trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 49% versus Venezia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Perugia 33% | Venezia 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 0.97 xG and Venezia 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.788 / defence 1.031 | Venezia attack 0.996 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.086. Perugia's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Perugia games / 17 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 29% | Draw 34% | Venezia 37%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | Venezia 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Perugia 40% | Venezia 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Monday 19 Dec 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 29% | Draw 34% | Venezia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Perugia 0.97 / Venezia 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.788 / def 1.031 | Venezia attack 0.996 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Venezia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Venezia xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Venezia kick off?
Perugia vs Venezia kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 19 December 2022 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Venezia?
Perugia 2 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Perugia vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Venezia part of?
Perugia vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 29% chance of winning, Venezia a 37% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Perugia and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Venezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Perugia and Venezia in?
Perugia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Venezia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Perugia's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Perugia's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
29%
3.44
34%
2.93
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.08
1.11
Venezia xG
3.44
29%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
10%
10.49
14%
7.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.9 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Perugia and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Perugia and 1.11 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Perugia come into this having played 55 games, going 16W 20D 19L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-L. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 0.84 PPG from 55 outings (11W 13D 31L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Perugia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Venezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Perugia's home form reads 8W 10D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 0.93 points per game from 27 outings (6W 7D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Perugia are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.98 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 62%.
Last 55 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Venezia in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 16W 20D 19L in their last 55 games (1.24 PPG), while Venezia have gone 11W 13D 31L in their last 55 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Venezia away?
Perugia's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.26 PPG; Venezia away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Perugia or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Venezia in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Perugia and Venezia runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Perugia
0
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Venezia?
From 2 meetings on record, Perugia have won 1, Venezia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Venezia 3-2 Perugia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Perugia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 44%, Venezia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Perugia and 44% for Venezia.
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Perugia have failed to score in 30% of games; Venezia in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Perugia's recent matches and 56% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Perugia's recent games and 44% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Perugia defy the odds to beat Venezia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia beat Venezia 2-1 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 0.97 xG and Venezia 1.11 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Perugia beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.79 / defence 1.03 against Venezia attack 1.00 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 29% | Draw 34% | Venezia 37%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Perugia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 33%, Venezia 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Venezia's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Perugia arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Perugia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.