Perugia 2-0 Crotone – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Perugia at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Perugia vs Crotone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Crotone travel to Stadio Renato Curi to take on Perugia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021, 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Perugia — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Perugia have posted 1W 2D 2L at Stadio Renato Curi — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Crotone have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crotone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crotone away from home this season: 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Perugia are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Perugia register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Crotone in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Perugia in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Crotone in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 42% versus Crotone 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Perugia 33% | Crotone 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.19 xG and Crotone 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.833 / defence 1.212 | Crotone attack 0.788 / defence 1.452. League average goals — home 0.987 / away 1.140. Crotone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.452 — this is suppressing Perugia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Perugia games / 12 Crotone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 37% | Draw 31% | Crotone 32%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Crotone 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Perugia are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Perugia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Perugia 60% | Crotone 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Crotone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 37% | Draw 31% | Crotone 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Perugia 1.19 / Crotone 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.833 / def 1.212 | Crotone attack 0.788 / def 1.452 | league avg home 0.987 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Perugia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Crotone xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Crotone kick off?
Perugia vs Crotone kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Crotone?
Perugia 2 - 0 Crotone.
Where is Perugia vs Crotone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Crotone part of?
Perugia vs Crotone is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Crotone?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 37% chance of winning, Crotone a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Crotone?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Perugia and Crotone will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Crotone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Crotone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Perugia and Crotone in?
Perugia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Crotone (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Perugia's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Crotone's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Crotone's attack versus Perugia's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
37%
2.71
31%
3.19
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.28
1.09
Crotone xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
12%
8.05
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Crotone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Perugia and Crotone expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Perugia and 1.09 for Crotone, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Crotone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Perugia's recent record stands at 4W 5D 3L from 12 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crotone, meanwhile, have gone 1W 5D 6L across 12 games — 0.67 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Crotone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Perugia by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crotone heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Perugia have managed 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.42 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Crotone's away record stands at 0W 1D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Crotone's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Perugia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Perugia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Crotone are on 1.08 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crotone in 67%.
Defensively: Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Blended
Crotone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Crotone in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 4W 5D 3L in their last 12 games (1.42 PPG), while Crotone have gone 1W 5D 6L in their last 12 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Crotone away?
Perugia's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.00 PPG; Crotone away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Perugia or Crotone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Crotone in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Perugia and Crotone runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Perugia
1
Draws
0
Crotone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Crotone?
From 2 meetings on record, Perugia have won 1, Crotone have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Crotone last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2022, when Crotone 1-1 Perugia.
Who has won more matches between Perugia and Crotone?
Perugia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 60%, Crotone 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Perugia) and 60% (Crotone).
On the defensive side: Crotone in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Crotone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Crotone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Perugia's games and 60% of Crotone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Perugia vs Crotone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Perugia's recent games and 60% of Crotone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Crotone tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Crotone in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Perugia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Crotone.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia beat Crotone 2-0 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.19 xG and Crotone 1.09 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Perugia beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crotone landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.83 / defence 1.21 against Crotone attack 0.79 / defence 1.45, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 37% | Draw 31% | Crotone 32%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 33%, Crotone 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Crotone's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Perugia arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Perugia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Crotone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.