Parma 2-3 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Parma take on Ternana.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Ternana at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Parma — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's home record at Stadio Ennio Tardini: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Ternana have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Parma 1.10 PPG, Ternana 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Parma register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ternana in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Parma, 1 for Ternana and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Ternana winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Parma in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games).
Ternana in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 56% versus Ternana 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 44% | Ternana 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.09 xG and Ternana 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.974 / defence 1.029 | Ternana attack 0.882 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 0.943 / away 1.176. Data: 23 Parma games / 23 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 33% | Draw 35% | Ternana 32%. Fair-value odds: Parma 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Ternana 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Parma 60% | Ternana 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 33% | Draw 35% | Ternana 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Parma 1.09 / Ternana 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.974 / def 1.029 | Ternana attack 0.882 / def 1.188 | league avg home 0.943 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Ternana xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Ternana kick off?
Parma vs Ternana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Ternana?
Parma 2 - 3 Ternana.
Where is Parma vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Ternana part of?
Parma vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 33% chance of winning, Ternana a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Parma and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Ternana?
Record (1 meetings): Parma 0W | Draws 0 | Ternana 1W.
What form are Parma and Ternana in?
Parma (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Ternana (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Parma's attack rating (0.97) and Ternana's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.03
35%
2.84
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Parma xG
Total xG
2.16
1.07
Ternana xG
3.03
33%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
11%
8.82
11%
9.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Parma and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Parma and 1.07 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Parma's recent record stands at 6W 10D 7L from 23 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 9L across 23 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.22 PPG, Ternana on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Parma have managed 3W 5D 3L from 11 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ternana's away record stands at 2W 6D 3L across 11 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.39 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Ternana in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 6W 10D 7L in their last 23 games (1.22 PPG), while Ternana have gone 7W 7D 9L in their last 23 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Ternana away?
Parma's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.27 PPG; Ternana away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Parma or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ternana in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Ternana runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Parma go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Parma's record when hosting Ternana specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Parma
1
Draws
3
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Ternana?
From 6 meetings on record, Parma have won 2, Ternana have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Ternana 1-3 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Ternana?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 54%, Ternana 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Parma and 36% for Ternana.
On the defensive side: Parma have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Parma's games and 73% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Parma's recent games and 36% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Ternana tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Ternana in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ternana defy the odds to beat Parma 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Parma 2-3 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.09 xG and Ternana 1.07 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ternana outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against Ternana attack 0.88 / defence 1.19, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 33% | Draw 35% | Ternana 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Ternana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 44%, Ternana 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Ternana's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.22 PPG, Ternana 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ternana win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ternana (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.