Parma 1-1 Crotone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Crotone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crotone make the trip to Stadio Ennio Tardini to face Parma in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 January 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Parma's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 3L across 9 games at Stadio Ennio Tardini this term (1.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game.
Crotone have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crotone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Crotone have gone 0W 2D 7L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.22 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Parma. A 0.80 PPG lead over Crotone (1.30 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Parma half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (home games).
Crotone half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 53% versus Crotone 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 42% | Crotone 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 0.99 xG and Crotone 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.700 / defence 0.947 | Crotone attack 0.732 / defence 1.449. League average goals — home 0.976 / away 1.256. Parma's attack strength of 0.700 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Crotone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.449 — this is suppressing Parma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Parma games / 19 Crotone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 36% | Draw 34% | Crotone 30%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Crotone 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.86 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Parma 44% | Crotone 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Crotone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jan 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 36% | Draw 34% | Crotone 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Parma 0.99 / Crotone 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.700 / def 0.947 | Crotone attack 0.732 / def 1.449 | league avg home 0.976 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Parma (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Crotone xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Crotone kick off?
Parma vs Crotone kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 30 January 2022 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Crotone?
Parma 1 - 1 Crotone.
Where is Parma vs Crotone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Crotone part of?
Parma vs Crotone is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Crotone?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 36% chance of winning, Crotone a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Crotone?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Parma and Crotone will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Crotone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Crotone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Parma and Crotone in?
Parma (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Crotone (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Parma's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Crotone's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — Crotone's attack (0.73x) against Parma's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
36%
2.77
34%
2.93
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Parma xG
Total xG
1.86
0.87
Crotone xG
2.77
36%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 13.5 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Crotone?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Parma and Crotone expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Parma and 0.87 for Crotone, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Crotone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Parma's recent record stands at 5W 8D 6L from 19 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crotone, meanwhile, have gone 2W 6D 11L across 19 games — 0.63 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Crotone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crotone heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Parma have managed 2W 4D 3L from 9 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crotone's away record stands at 0W 2D 7L across 9 trips, a 0.22 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.63 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Crotone's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Parma are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Crotone are on 1.11 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crotone in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Crotone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Crotone in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 5W 8D 6L in their last 19 games (1.21 PPG), while Crotone have gone 2W 6D 11L in their last 19 (0.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Crotone away?
Parma's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.11 PPG; Crotone away: 0.22 PPG.
Have Parma or Crotone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Crotone in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Parma
1
Draws
0
Crotone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Crotone?
From 2 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Crotone have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Crotone last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2022, when Crotone 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Crotone?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 44%, Crotone 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 11% for Parma and 44% for Crotone.
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Parma have failed to score in 33% of games; Crotone in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Crotone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Crotone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Parma's recent matches and 56% of Crotone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Crotone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 11% of Parma's recent games and 44% of Crotone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Crotone tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Crotone in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma and Crotone share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma and Crotone finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 0.99 xG and Crotone 0.87 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.70 / defence 0.95 against Crotone attack 0.73 / defence 1.45, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 36% | Draw 34% | Crotone 30%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 42%, Crotone 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Crotone's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.63. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Crotone (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.