Parma 0-1 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 16 as Parma welcome Benevento to Stadio Ennio Tardini. Kick-off is set for Thursday 8 December 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Parma have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's home record at Stadio Ennio Tardini: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Benevento — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Parma are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Parma, 0 for Benevento and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Parma trading profile (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Benevento trading profile (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 55% versus Benevento 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 43% | Benevento 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.34 xG and Benevento 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.172 / defence 1.008 | Benevento attack 1.046 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.113. Data: 53 Parma games / 53 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 39% | Draw 30% | Benevento 31%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Benevento 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Parma 60% | Benevento 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Dec 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 39% | Draw 30% | Benevento 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Parma 1.34 / Benevento 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.172 / def 1.008 | Benevento attack 1.046 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Parma (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Benevento xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Benevento kick off?
Parma vs Benevento kicked off at 11:30 on Thursday 8 December 2022 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Benevento?
Parma 0 - 1 Benevento.
Where is Parma vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Benevento part of?
Parma vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 39% chance of winning, Benevento a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Parma and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Benevento?
Record (2 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 1 | Benevento 0W.
What form are Parma and Benevento in?
Parma (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Benevento (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Parma's attack rating (1.17) and Benevento's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
39%
2.55
30%
3.38
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Parma xG
Total xG
2.51
1.17
Benevento xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
8%
12.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Parma and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Parma and 1.17 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Parma come into this having played 53 games, going 17W 21D 15L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Benevento sit at 1.51 PPG from 53 outings (22W 14D 17L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.36 PPG, Benevento on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Parma's home form reads 10W 10D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Benevento have taken 1.52 points per game from 27 outings (11W 8D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Benevento in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 17W 21D 15L in their last 53 games (1.36 PPG), while Benevento have gone 22W 14D 17L in their last 53 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Benevento away?
Benevento's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.48 PPG; Benevento away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Parma or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Benevento in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Parma's record when hosting Benevento specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Parma
2
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Benevento?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Benevento have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2023, when Benevento 2-2 Parma.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 59%, Benevento 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Parma) and 30% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Benevento in 33%; Benevento in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Parma's recent matches and 41% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Parma's recent games and 30% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Benevento tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Benevento in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Benevento defy the odds to beat Parma 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Parma 0-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.34 xG and Benevento 1.17 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Parma fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.17 / defence 1.01 against Benevento attack 1.05 / defence 0.95, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 39% | Draw 30% | Benevento 31%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Benevento win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 43%, Benevento 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benevento's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.36 PPG, Benevento 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benevento win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Benevento (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.