Parma 0-1 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Parma and Ascoli meet at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 February 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Parma's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Parma are significantly better at Stadio Ennio Tardini than their overall form suggests.
Ascoli (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Parma, 0.90 for Ascoli — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Parma 1W, Ascoli 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 3–1 with Parma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Parma half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Ascoli half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 50% versus Ascoli 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 40% | Ascoli 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.51 xG and Ascoli 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.128 / defence 0.884 | Ascoli attack 0.966 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.011. Data: 62 Parma games / 62 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 52% | Draw 27% | Ascoli 21%. Fair-value odds: Parma 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Ascoli 4.76. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Parma 40% | Ascoli 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 52% | Draw 27% | Ascoli 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Parma 1.51 / Ascoli 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.128 / def 0.884 | Ascoli attack 0.966 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: Parma (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Ascoli xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Ascoli kick off?
Parma vs Ascoli kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Ascoli?
Parma 0 - 1 Ascoli.
Where is Parma vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Ascoli part of?
Parma vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 52% chance of winning, Ascoli a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Parma and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Ascoli?
Record (3 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 1 | Ascoli 1W.
What form are Parma and Ascoli in?
Parma (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Ascoli (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Parma's attack at 1.13x the league average against Ascoli's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ascoli's attack (0.97x) against Parma's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.73
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Parma xG
Total xG
2.38
0.86
Ascoli xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
5%
21.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Parma and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Parma and 0.86 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Parma's recent record stands at 20W 23D 19L from 62 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 25W 16D 21L across 62 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Parma against 1.47 for Ascoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Parma have managed 12W 10D 9L from 31 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 15W 6D 10L across 31 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Parma are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.26 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 20W 23D 19L in their last 62 games (1.34 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 25W 16D 21L in their last 62 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Ascoli away?
Ascoli's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.48 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Parma or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Ascoli in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ascoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Parma
2
Draws
2
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Ascoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Parma have won 2, Ascoli have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when Parma 1-1 Ascoli.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 52%, Ascoli 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Parma) and 42% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Ascoli in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Parma's recent matches and 52% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Parma's recent games and 42% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Ascoli tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ascoli defy the odds to beat Parma 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Parma 0-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.51 xG and Ascoli 0.86 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Parma fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.13 / defence 0.88 against Ascoli attack 0.97 / defence 1.14, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 52% | Draw 27% | Ascoli 21%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Ascoli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 40%, Ascoli 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ascoli's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.34 PPG, Ascoli 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ascoli win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Ascoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.