Palermo 0-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Parma travel to Stadio Renzo Barbera to take on Palermo in Serie B (matchday 34). The game is scheduled for Friday 19 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Palermo have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Palermo's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Parma stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Parma have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Parma are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Palermo, 1 for Parma and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Dec 2023, ended Palermo 3–3 Parma — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Palermo in-play tendencies (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 48%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Parma in-play tendencies (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 59% versus Parma 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 52% | Parma 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.35 xG and Parma 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.278 / defence 1.229 | Parma attack 1.167 / defence 0.846. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.206. Palermo carry an above-average attack rating of 1.278 — their 1.35 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Palermo's defence rating of 1.229 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Parma's projected output up. Data: built from Palermo's last 71 games and Parma's last 71.
Result probabilities: Palermo 29% | Draw 26% | Parma 45%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 3.48 | Draw 3.85 | Parma 2.21. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.35 / 1.73) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Palermo's last 10 home games and Parma's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Palermo 60% (last 10 home games) | Parma 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, matchday 34 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Friday 19 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 29% | Draw 26% | Parma 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Palermo 1.35 / Parma 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.278 / def 1.229 | Parma attack 1.167 / def 0.846 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Parma (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Parma xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Palermo vs Parma FAQs
What time does Palermo vs Parma kick off?
Palermo vs Parma kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 19 April 2024 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Parma?
Palermo 0 - 0 Parma.
Where is Palermo vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Parma part of?
Palermo vs Parma is a Serie B fixture (matchday 34) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 29% chance of winning, Parma a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Palermo and Parma will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Palermo vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Palermo's attack at 1.28x the league average against Parma's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Palermo's last 71 games and Parma's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
29%
3.48
26%
3.85
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Palermo xG
Total xG
3.08
1.73
Parma xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
5%
19.65
12%
8.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Palermo vs Parma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Palermo and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Palermo and 1.73 for Parma, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 71 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 25W 25D 21L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Parma's form line: 37W 18D 16L from 71 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Parma are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Palermo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.66 PPG from their last 35 home games (16W 10D 9L).
On the road, Parma have gone 16W 10D 9L from their last 35 away games — 1.66 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Palermo are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.51 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Current Season
Parma
Current Season
Palermo (Home) vs Parma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Palermo
Current Season
Parma
Current Season
❓ Palermo vs Parma Form FAQs
What form are Palermo and Parma in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 25W 25D 21L in their last 71 games (1.41 PPG), while Parma have gone 37W 18D 16L in their last 71 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Parma away?
Palermo's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.66 PPG; Parma away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Palermo or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Parma in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 19 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Palermo's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Palermo
2
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Palermo vs Parma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Parma?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Palermo have won 1, Parma have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Parma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2024: Palermo 0-0 Parma.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 51%, Parma 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Palermo) and 51% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Parma in 31%; Palermo have failed to score in 26% of games; Parma in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Palermo vs Parma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Palermo and Parma matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Palermo's recent matches and 51% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Palermo and Parma matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Palermo's recent games and 51% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Parma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Palermo's recent matches and 74% of Parma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Palermo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 34, as Palermo and Parma drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.35 xG and Parma 1.73 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Palermo fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Parma landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.28 / defence 1.23 against Parma attack 1.17 / defence 0.85, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 29% | Draw 26% | Parma 45%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 52%, Parma 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Parma's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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