Cosenza 2-1 Vicenza Virtus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Vicenza Virtus travel to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to take on Cosenza. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vicenza Virtus — All Games: 0W 0D 2L from 2 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.00 PPG (Cosenza) versus 0.00 (Vicenza Virtus). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.15 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.955 / defence 1.150 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.701 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.123 / away 1.166. Data: 2 Cosenza games / 2 Vicenza Virtus games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cosenza 40% | Draw 31% | Vicenza Virtus 29%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Vicenza Virtus 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 40% | Draw 31% | Vicenza Virtus 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Cosenza 1.15 / Vicenza Virtus 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.955 / def 1.150 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.701 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.123 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Vicenza Virtus xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus?
Cosenza 2 - 1 Vicenza Virtus.
Where is Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 40% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cosenza and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cosenza and Vicenza Virtus in?
Cosenza (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cosenza's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Vicenza Virtus's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Vicenza Virtus's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
40%
2.52
31%
3.21
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.09
0.94
Vicenza Virtus xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
9%
10.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.94 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cosenza's recent record stands at 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vicenza Virtus, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 2L across 2 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 0.00 PPG, Vicenza Virtus on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 0.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus in 0%.
Last 2 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Early Season
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cosenza's record when hosting Vicenza Virtus specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cosenza
1
Draws
1
Vicenza Virtus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Vicenza Virtus?
From 4 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 2, Vicenza Virtus have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Vicenza Virtus last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2022, when Cosenza 2-0 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Vicenza Virtus?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Vicenza Virtus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cosenza's recent matches and 0% of Vicenza Virtus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cosenza's recent games and 0% of Vicenza Virtus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cosenza edge out Vicenza Virtus 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Vicenza Virtus 2-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.15 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.94 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cosenza beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Vicenza Virtus attack 0.70 / defence 1.07, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 40% | Draw 31% | Vicenza Virtus 29%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 50%, Vicenza Virtus 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 0.00 PPG, Vicenza Virtus 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Vicenza Virtus scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.