Cosenza 1-3 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cosenza at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Ternana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 15 as Cosenza welcome Ternana to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 December 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Ternana have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Cosenza carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cosenza, 1 for Ternana and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cosenza trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Ternana trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 48% versus Ternana 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 36% | Ternana 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.86 xG and Ternana 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.208 / defence 0.920 | Ternana attack 0.981 / defence 1.397. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.184. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.397 — this is suppressing Cosenza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Cosenza games / 52 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 54% | Draw 27% | Ternana 20%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Ternana 5.00. Cosenza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 50% | Ternana 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 54% | Draw 27% | Ternana 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Cosenza 1.86 / Ternana 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.208 / def 0.920 | Ternana attack 0.981 / def 1.397 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Ternana xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Ternana kick off?
Cosenza vs Ternana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Ternana?
Cosenza 1 - 3 Ternana.
Where is Cosenza vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Ternana part of?
Cosenza vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 54% chance of winning, Ternana a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Cosenza and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Ternana?
Record (4 meetings): Cosenza 1W | Draws 2 | Ternana 1W.
What form are Cosenza and Ternana in?
Cosenza (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Ternana (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cosenza's attack at 1.21x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.77
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.93
1.07
Ternana xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
3%
32.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.6 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.07 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cosenza's recent record stands at 13W 18D 21L from 52 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 12W 15D 25L across 52 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 1.10 PPG, Ternana on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 10W 9D 6L from 25 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ternana's away record stands at 3W 7D 15L across 25 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 0.96 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Ternana in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 13W 18D 21L in their last 52 games (1.10 PPG), while Ternana have gone 12W 15D 25L in their last 52 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Ternana away?
Cosenza's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.56 PPG; Ternana away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ternana have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Cosenza's record when hosting Ternana specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cosenza
2
Draws
3
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Ternana?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Ternana have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Ternana 1-0 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Ternana?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 56%, Ternana 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cosenza) and 64% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Ternana in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Cosenza's games and 60% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cosenza's recent games and 64% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Ternana tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Ternana in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ternana cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Cosenza 1-3 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.86 xG and Ternana 1.07 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Cosenza fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Ternana outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.21 / defence 0.92 against Ternana attack 0.98 / defence 1.40, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 54% | Draw 27% | Ternana 20%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Ternana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 36%, Ternana 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Ternana's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.10 PPG, Ternana 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ternana win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ternana (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.