Cosenza 0-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Sudtirol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cosenza host Sudtirol at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 February 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cosenza — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Cosenza have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Sudtirol have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Sudtirol's 1.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Cosenza's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cosenza have won 0, Sudtirol 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 54% versus Sudtirol 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 42% | Sudtirol 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 0.91 xG and Sudtirol 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.867 / defence 1.022 | Sudtirol attack 0.938 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.011. Data: 62 Cosenza games / 24 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 32% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 35%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Sudtirol 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cosenza 70% | Sudtirol 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 32% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Cosenza 0.91 / Sudtirol 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.867 / def 1.022 | Sudtirol attack 0.938 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Sudtirol xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Sudtirol kick off?
Cosenza vs Sudtirol kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Sudtirol?
Cosenza 0 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Cosenza vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Sudtirol part of?
Cosenza vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 32% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Cosenza and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Sudtirol?
Record (1 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 0W.
What form are Cosenza and Sudtirol in?
Cosenza (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (0.87) and Sudtirol's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
32%
3.12
33%
3.04
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Cosenza xG
Total xG
1.88
0.97
Sudtirol xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
14%
7.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 14.8 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.97 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cosenza come into this having played 24 games, going 5W 7D 12L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.62 PPG from 24 outings (10W 9D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Cosenza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cosenza's home form reads 3W 4D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.82 points per game from 11 outings (6W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cosenza are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.12 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 5W 7D 12L in their last 24 games (0.92 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 10W 9D 5L in their last 24 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Sudtirol away?
Sudtirol's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.18 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cosenza and Sudtirol runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sudtirol go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Cosenza's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cosenza
3
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Sudtirol?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Sudtirol have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Sudtirol 2-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 64%, Sudtirol 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cosenza) and 27% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 46%; Cosenza have failed to score in 27% of games; Sudtirol in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Cosenza's recent matches and 27% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cosenza's recent games and 27% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cosenza's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 25, as Cosenza and Sudtirol drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 0.91 xG and Sudtirol 0.97 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cosenza fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Sudtirol landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.87 / defence 1.02 against Sudtirol attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 32% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 35%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 42%, Sudtirol 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sudtirol's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.