Cosenza 1-0 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cosenza host Brescia at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B, Relegation Play-offs - Final. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 25 May 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Cosenza have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brescia stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Brescia have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cosenza at 1.40 PPG versus Brescia's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cosenza, 2 for Brescia and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Brescia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Brescia in-play and half-time data (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 51% versus Brescia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 38% | Brescia 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.32 xG and Brescia 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.814 / defence 0.868 | Brescia attack 1.011 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.063. Brescia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing Cosenza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 76 Cosenza games / 76 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 44% | Draw 31% | Brescia 25%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Brescia 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 40% | Brescia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Relegation Play-offs - Final | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Thursday 25 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 44% | Draw 31% | Brescia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Cosenza 1.32 / Brescia 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.814 / def 0.868 | Brescia attack 1.011 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Brescia xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Brescia kick off?
Cosenza vs Brescia kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 25 May 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Brescia?
Cosenza 1 - 0 Brescia.
Where is Cosenza vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Brescia part of?
Cosenza vs Brescia is a Relegation Play-offs - Final fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 44% chance of winning, Brescia a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cosenza and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Brescia?
Record (4 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 2 | Brescia 2W.
What form are Cosenza and Brescia in?
Cosenza (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Brescia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cosenza's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Brescia's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
44%
2.27
31%
3.20
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.25
0.93
Brescia xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
7%
15.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.93 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 78 outings, Cosenza have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 18W 24D 36L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Brescia's form line: 26W 28D 24L from 78 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 1.00 PPG, Brescia on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cosenza have posted 1.45 PPG from 38 outings (15W 10D 13L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Brescia have gone 11W 14D 13L from 38 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Cosenza are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.21 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 78 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Current Season
Brescia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Brescia in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 18W 24D 36L in their last 78 games (1.00 PPG), while Brescia have gone 26W 28D 24L in their last 78 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Brescia away?
Cosenza's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.45 PPG; Brescia away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cosenza and Brescia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2021, when Brescia won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cosenza's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Cosenza
4
Draws
4
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Brescia?
From 10 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 2, Brescia have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Cosenza 1-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 50%, Brescia 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Cosenza) and 42% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cosenza have failed to score in 29% of games; Brescia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cosenza's recent matches and 53% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Cosenza's recent games and 42% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Brescia tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Brescia in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cosenza edge out Brescia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Brescia 1-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Relegation Play-offs - Final, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.32 xG and Brescia 0.93 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Brescia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.81 / defence 0.87 against Brescia attack 1.01 / defence 1.33, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 44% | Draw 31% | Brescia 25%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 38%, Brescia 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Brescia's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.00 PPG, Brescia 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.