Cosenza 1-0 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benevento at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cosenza host Benevento at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 14 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cosenza have posted 1W 2D 7L at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Benevento — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Benevento's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Benevento — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cosenza have won 0, Benevento 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with Benevento winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cosenza in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Benevento in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 54% versus Benevento 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 42% | Benevento 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 0.86 xG and Benevento 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.812 / defence 1.521 | Benevento attack 1.019 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.039 / away 1.050. Data: 33 Cosenza games / 33 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 17% | Draw 30% | Benevento 53%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 5.88 | Draw 3.33 | Benevento 1.89. Benevento hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 50% | Benevento 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Thursday 14 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 17% | Draw 30% | Benevento 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Cosenza 0.86 / Benevento 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.812 / def 1.521 | Benevento attack 1.019 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.039 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Benevento (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Benevento xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Benevento kick off?
Cosenza vs Benevento kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 14 April 2022 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Benevento?
Cosenza 1 - 0 Benevento.
Where is Cosenza vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Benevento part of?
Cosenza vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 17% chance of winning, Benevento a 53% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cosenza and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Benevento?
Record (1 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 0 | Benevento 1W.
What form are Cosenza and Benevento in?
Cosenza (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Benevento (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cosenza's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-2 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
17%
5.85
30%
3.34
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.48
1.63
Benevento xG
5.85
17%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
3%
29.79
22%
4.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 13.6 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.63 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cosenza come into this having played 33 games, going 5W 10D 18L for 0.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Benevento sit at 1.82 PPG from 33 outings (17W 9D 7L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Benevento carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.06 PPG clear of Cosenza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cosenza's home form reads 5W 3D 8L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Benevento have taken 1.62 points per game from 16 outings (7W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cosenza are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.70 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Benevento in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Current Season
Benevento
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Benevento in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 5W 10D 18L in their last 33 games (0.76 PPG), while Benevento have gone 17W 9D 7L in their last 33 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Benevento away?
Benevento's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.12 PPG; Benevento away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Benevento in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cosenza and Benevento runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2021, when Benevento won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cosenza's record when hosting Benevento specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cosenza
1
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Benevento?
From 4 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 2, Benevento have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2023, when Cosenza 1-1 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Benevento?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 50%, Benevento 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Cosenza and 19% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Benevento in 38%; Cosenza have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cosenza's recent matches and 38% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cosenza's recent games and 19% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Benevento tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Benevento in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cosenza defy the odds to beat Benevento 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Benevento 1-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 0.86 xG and Benevento 1.63 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Benevento landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.81 / defence 1.52 against Benevento attack 1.02 / defence 1.02, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 17% | Draw 30% | Benevento 53%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Cosenza win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 42%, Benevento 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Benevento's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Cosenza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.