Monza 3-0 Pescara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monza at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monza vs Pescara encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Monza and Pescara meet at Brianteo in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Monza's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza at Brianteo this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Pescara have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pescara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pescara have gone 0W 4D 5L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Monza's 1.80 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Pescara's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Monza, 0 for Pescara and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with Monza winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Pescara goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Monza 50% and Pescara 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 40% | Pescara 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 2.27 xG and Pescara 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 1.130 / defence 0.994 | Pescara attack 1.063 / defence 1.546. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.041. Pescara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.546 — this is suppressing Monza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Monza games / 20 Pescara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 63% | Draw 20% | Pescara 17%. Fair-value odds: Monza 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Pescara 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Monza (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monza at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Monza 50% | Pescara 89% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Pescara | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Brianteo • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 63% | Draw 20% | Pescara 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 60% | xG Monza 2.27 / Pescara 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 1.130 / def 0.994 | Pescara attack 1.063 / def 1.546 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Monza (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Pescara xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Pescara kick off?
Monza vs Pescara kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Brianteo.
What was the final score in Monza vs Pescara?
Monza 3 - 0 Pescara.
Where is Monza vs Pescara being played?
The match is being played at Brianteo.
What competition is Monza vs Pescara part of?
Monza vs Pescara is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Pescara?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 63% chance of winning, Pescara a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Pescara?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Monza and Pescara will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Pescara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Pescara?
Record (1 meetings): Monza 1W | Draws 0 | Pescara 0W.
What form are Monza and Pescara in?
Monza (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Pescara (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Monza's attack rating (1.13) and Pescara's defence rating (1.55), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pescara's attack (1.06x) against Monza's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
63%
1.58
20%
5.08
17%
5.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Monza xG
Total xG
3.37
1.10
Pescara xG
1.58
63%
Home win
5.08
20%
Draw
5.89
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
10%
9.64
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
2%
56.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Pescara?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Monza and Pescara expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Monza and 1.10 for Pescara, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Pescara?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 20 outings, Monza have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 11W 5D 4L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pescara's form line: 2W 8D 10L from 20 games, 0.70 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Pescara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Monza are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pescara.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Monza have posted 2.22 PPG from 9 outings (6W 2D 1L).
On the road, Pescara have gone 0W 4D 5L from 9 away games — 0.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Monza are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Pescara are on 1.25 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara in 75%.
Defensively: Monza have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Pescara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Pescara in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 11W 5D 4L in their last 20 games (1.90 PPG), while Pescara have gone 2W 8D 10L in their last 20 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Pescara away?
Monza's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 2.22 PPG; Pescara away: 0.44 PPG.
Have Monza or Pescara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Pescara in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Monza
0
Draws
0
Pescara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Pescara?
From 2 meetings on record, Monza have won 2, Pescara have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Pescara last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Monza 3-0 Pescara.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Pescara?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for Monza, 89% for Pescara — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Monza and 78% for Pescara. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Pescara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Pescara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Monza's games and 89% of Pescara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monza vs Pescara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Monza's matches and 78% of Pescara's.
Do Monza and Pescara tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pescara in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Monza run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Pescara.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Pescara 3-0 at Brianteo, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 2.27 xG and Pescara 1.10 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Pescara landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.13 / defence 0.99 against Pescara attack 1.06 / defence 1.55, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 63% | Draw 20% | Pescara 17%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 40%, Pescara 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pescara's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.70. Form held, and they took the win. Monza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Pescara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.