Monza 2-2 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monza at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monza vs Perugia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 19 as Monza welcome Perugia to U-Power Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 January 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Monza have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at U-Power Stadium, Monza have gone 7W 1D 0L this season (8 games, 2.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Monza are significantly better at U-Power Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Perugia stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Perugia's away record: 3W 5D 1L from 9 road trips in Serie B this season (1.56 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 9 games (56%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Monza carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Monza in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Perugia in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 61% versus Perugia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Monza 39% | Perugia 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.43 xG and Perugia 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 1.380 / defence 1.042 | Perugia attack 0.794 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 0.992 / away 1.269. Monza carry an above-average attack strength of 1.380 — their λ of 1.43 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 18 Monza games / 18 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 45% | Draw 28% | Perugia 27%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Perugia 3.70. Monza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Monza 62% | Perugia 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jan 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 45% | Draw 28% | Perugia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Monza 1.43 / Perugia 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 1.380 / def 1.042 | Perugia attack 0.794 / def 1.047 | league avg home 0.992 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Monza (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Perugia xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Perugia kick off?
Monza vs Perugia kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 16 January 2022 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Perugia?
Monza 2 - 2 Perugia.
Where is Monza vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Perugia part of?
Monza vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 45% chance of winning, Perugia a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Monza and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Perugia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Monza and Perugia in?
Monza (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Perugia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Monza's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Perugia's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Perugia's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.54
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Monza xG
Total xG
2.48
1.05
Perugia xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
6%
15.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Monza and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Monza and 1.05 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Monza's recent record stands at 8W 7D 3L from 18 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Perugia, meanwhile, have gone 6W 9D 3L across 18 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monza on 1.72 PPG, Perugia on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Monza have managed 7W 1D 0L from 8 games — 2.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Monza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Perugia's away record stands at 2W 5D 1L across 8 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Monza are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.06 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monza have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Perugia in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Perugia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Perugia in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 8W 7D 3L in their last 18 games (1.72 PPG), while Perugia have gone 6W 9D 3L in their last 18 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Perugia away?
Monza's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 2.75 PPG; Perugia away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Monza or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Perugia in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Monza and Perugia runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Monza
1
Draws
1
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Perugia?
From 2 meetings on record, Monza have won 0, Perugia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2022, when Perugia 1-0 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Perugia?
Perugia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 62%, Perugia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Monza) and 38% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Perugia in 50%; Perugia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Perugia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Monza's games and 50% of Perugia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monza vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Monza's recent games and 38% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Perugia tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Perugia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monza and Perugia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza and Perugia finished level at 2-2 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.43 xG and Perugia 1.05 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Perugia outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.38 / defence 1.04 against Perugia attack 0.79 / defence 1.05, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 45% | Draw 28% | Perugia 27%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 39%, Perugia 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Perugia's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 1.72 PPG, Perugia 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Monza (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Perugia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.