Modena 2-1 Mantova – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Modena at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Mantova encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Modena and Mantova meet at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Modena have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Modena's home record at Stadio Alberto Braglia: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Alberto Braglia. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Alberto Braglia this season.
Mantova (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mantova's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Modena lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 3–1 with Modena winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Modena — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Mantova — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 54% versus Mantova 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 48% | Mantova 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.38 xG and Mantova 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.914 / defence 0.894 | Mantova attack 0.884 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.092. Data: 68 Modena games / 69 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 47% | Draw 30% | Mantova 22%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Mantova 4.55. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Modena 50% | Mantova 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 47% | Draw 30% | Mantova 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Modena 1.38 / Mantova 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.914 / def 0.894 | Mantova attack 0.884 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Modena (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Mantova xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Mantova kick off?
Modena vs Mantova kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Mantova?
Modena 2 - 1 Mantova.
Where is Modena vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Mantova part of?
Modena vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 47% chance of winning, Mantova a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Modena and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Mantova?
Record (3 meetings): Modena 2W | Draws 1 | Mantova 0W.
What form are Modena and Mantova in?
Modena (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Mantova (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Modena's attack rating (0.91) and Mantova's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mantova's attack (0.88x) against Modena's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 68/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
47%
2.11
30%
3.28
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Modena xG
Total xG
2.24
0.86
Mantova xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
6%
17.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.7 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Modena and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Modena and 0.86 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 68 outings, Modena have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 23W 23D 22L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Mantova's form line: 19W 20D 29L from 68 games, 1.13 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Modena against 1.13 for Mantova. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.45 PPG from 33 outings (12W 12D 9L).
On the road, Mantova have gone 4W 10D 19L from 33 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mantova's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Modena are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.18 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Current Season
Mantova
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Mantova in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 23W 23D 22L in their last 68 games (1.35 PPG), while Mantova have gone 19W 20D 29L in their last 68 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Mantova away?
Modena's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.45 PPG; Mantova away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Modena or Mantova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Mantova in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Modena have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mantova — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Modena
1
Draws
0
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Mantova?
From 4 meetings on record, Modena have won 3, Mantova have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Modena 2-1 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Mantova?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 61%, Mantova 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Modena) and 54% (Mantova). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Mantova in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Mantova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Modena's games and 58% of Mantova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Modena's matches and 54% of Mantova's.
Do Modena and Mantova tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mantova in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Modena edge out Mantova 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Mantova 2-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.38 xG and Mantova 0.86 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.91 / defence 0.89 against Mantova attack 0.88 / defence 1.11, drawn from 68/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 47% | Draw 30% | Mantova 22%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 48%, Mantova 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Mantova's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.35 PPG, Mantova 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.