Modena 2-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Cremonese travel to Stadio Alberto Braglia to take on Modena. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 29 October 2024, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena at Stadio Alberto Braglia this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Cremonese's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Modena's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Modena register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cremonese in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Modena, 2 for Cremonese and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Modena in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 60% versus Cremonese 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 48% | Cremonese 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.36 xG and Cremonese 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.068 / defence 1.096 | Cremonese attack 1.274 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.122. Cremonese have an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Modena games / 48 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 31% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 40%. Fair-value odds: Modena 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Cremonese 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Modena 60% | Cremonese 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Oct 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 31% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Modena 1.36 / Cremonese 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.068 / def 1.096 | Cremonese attack 1.274 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Cremonese xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Cremonese kick off?
Modena vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 29 October 2024 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Cremonese?
Modena 2 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Modena vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Cremonese part of?
Modena vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 31% chance of winning, Cremonese a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Modena and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Cremonese?
Record (2 meetings): Modena 0W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 2W.
What form are Modena and Cremonese in?
Modena (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Cremonese (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Modena vs Cremonese?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Modena's attack rating (1.07) and Cremonese's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
31%
3.21
29%
3.50
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Modena xG
Total xG
2.93
1.57
Cremonese xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
7%
15.38
10%
9.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Modena and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Modena and 1.57 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Modena come into this having played 48 games, going 12W 21D 15L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.75 PPG from 48 outings (24W 12D 12L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Modena — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Modena's home form reads 8W 7D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.71 points per game from 24 outings (12W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.44 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 12W 21D 15L in their last 48 games (1.19 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 24W 12D 12L in their last 48 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.29 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Modena or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Cremonese in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Modena and Cremonese runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Dec 2023, when Cremonese won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Modena's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Modena
2
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Modena have won 0, Cremonese have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Cremonese 2-2 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 50%, Cremonese 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Modena) and 58% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 29% of games; Cremonese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Modena's recent matches and 54% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Modena's recent games and 58% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Cremonese tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena and Cremonese share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 11, as Modena and Cremonese drew 2-2 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.36 xG and Cremonese 1.57 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.07 / defence 1.10 against Cremonese attack 1.27 / defence 0.99, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 31% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 40%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 48%, Cremonese 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.