Modena 2-0 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Alberto Braglia plays host to Modena versus Carrarese in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Modena have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Modena are significantly better at Stadio Alberto Braglia than their overall form suggests.
Carrarese (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Carrarese have posted 1W 1D 4L from 6 away outings — 0.67 PPG. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Carrarese arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 67% versus Carrarese 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 67% | Carrarese 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.66 xG and Carrarese 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.184 / defence 1.177 | Carrarese attack 0.791 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.058. Carrarese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Modena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Modena games / 12 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 51% | Draw 30% | Carrarese 20%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Carrarese 5.00. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Carrarese (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Modena 60% | Carrarese 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 51% | Draw 30% | Carrarese 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Modena 1.66 / Carrarese 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.184 / def 1.177 | Carrarese attack 0.791 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Modena (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Carrarese xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Carrarese kick off?
Modena vs Carrarese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Carrarese?
Modena 2 - 0 Carrarese.
Where is Modena vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Carrarese part of?
Modena vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 51% chance of winning, Carrarese a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Modena and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Carrarese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Modena and Carrarese in?
Modena (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Modena vs Carrarese?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Modena's attack rating (1.18) and Carrarese's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (0.79x) against Modena's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 50/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
51%
1.98
30%
3.38
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Modena xG
Total xG
2.64
0.99
Carrarese xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
4%
26.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Modena and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Modena and 0.99 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Modena come into this having played 12 games, going 2W 5D 5L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Carrarese sit at 1.08 PPG from 12 outings (3W 4D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Modena against 1.08 for Carrarese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Modena's home form reads 2W 2D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Modena are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Carrarese have taken 0.67 points per game from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Modena are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 0.92 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Carrarese in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 2W 5D 5L in their last 12 games (0.92 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Carrarese away?
Modena's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.33 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Modena or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Carrarese in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Carrarese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Modena
1
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Carrarese?
From 4 meetings on record, Modena have won 2, Carrarese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Modena 2-0 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Carrarese?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 67%, Carrarese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Modena and 50% for Carrarese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Carrarese in 33%; Carrarese in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Modena's games and 50% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Modena's matches and 50% of Carrarese's.
Do Modena and Carrarese tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Carrarese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Carrarese 2-0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.66 xG and Carrarese 0.99 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Carrarese landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.18 / defence 1.18 against Carrarese attack 0.79 / defence 1.21, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 51% | Draw 30% | Carrarese 20%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 67%, Carrarese 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Carrarese's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 0.92 PPG, Carrarese 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.