Modena 1-3 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 42%, yet in-form Brescia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Modena vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Brescia travel to Stadio Alberto Braglia to take on Modena. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 September 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 1W 0D 3L from 4 Serie B matches — 0.75 PPG. Last five: L L W L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Brescia have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Brescia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Brescia away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Brescia are 0.85 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.75), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Brescia trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 50% versus Brescia 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 50% | Brescia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.28 xG and Brescia 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.016 / defence 1.091 | Brescia attack 0.879 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.057. Data: 4 Modena games / 42 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 42% | Draw 28% | Brescia 29%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Brescia 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Brescia (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Modena 50% | Brescia 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 42% | Draw 28% | Brescia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Modena 1.28 / Brescia 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.016 / def 1.091 | Brescia attack 0.879 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Modena (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Brescia xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Brescia kick off?
Modena vs Brescia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Brescia?
Modena 1 - 3 Brescia.
Where is Modena vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Brescia part of?
Modena vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 42% chance of winning, Brescia a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Modena and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Brescia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Modena and Brescia in?
Modena (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-L-W-L. Brescia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Modena's attack rating (1.02) and Brescia's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
42%
2.36
28%
3.55
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Modena xG
Total xG
2.29
1.01
Brescia xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
8%
12.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.3 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Modena and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Modena and 1.01 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Modena have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 1W 0D 3L record — L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Brescia's form line: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games, 2.25 PPG, last five W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Brescia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Brescia are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Modena.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brescia in 25%.
Defensively: Brescia in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Brescia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Brescia in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while Brescia have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 (2.25 PPG).
Have Modena or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Brescia in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Modena's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Modena
2
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Brescia?
From 6 meetings on record, Modena have won 2, Brescia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Modena 2-2 Brescia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 50%, Brescia 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Modena) and 50% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Brescia in 50%; Modena have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Modena's recent matches and 25% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Modena's recent games and 50% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Brescia tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Brescia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Modena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Modena 1-3 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.28 xG and Brescia 1.01 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Brescia outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.02 / defence 1.09 against Brescia attack 0.88 / defence 0.93, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 42% | Draw 28% | Brescia 29%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Brescia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 50%, Brescia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Brescia's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Modena shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brescia scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.