Modena 1-2 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Brescia travel to Stadio Alberto Braglia to take on Modena. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 January 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena at Stadio Alberto Braglia this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Brescia have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Modena 1.50 PPG, Brescia 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Modena have won 2, Brescia 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Modena winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Brescia trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 56% versus Brescia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Modena 44% | Brescia 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.06 xG and Brescia 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.883 / defence 0.996 | Brescia attack 1.004 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.188. Data: 57 Modena games / 57 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 31% | Draw 31% | Brescia 37%. Fair-value odds: Modena 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Brescia 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brescia are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Modena 50% | Brescia 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 31% | Draw 31% | Brescia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Modena 1.06 / Brescia 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.883 / def 0.996 | Brescia attack 1.004 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Brescia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Brescia xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Brescia kick off?
Modena vs Brescia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Brescia?
Modena 1 - 2 Brescia.
Where is Modena vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Brescia part of?
Modena vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 31% chance of winning, Brescia a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Modena and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Brescia?
Record (3 meetings): Modena 2W | Draws 0 | Brescia 1W.
What form are Modena and Brescia in?
Modena (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Brescia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Modena's attack rating (0.88) and Brescia's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
31%
3.21
31%
3.18
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Modena xG
Total xG
2.25
1.19
Brescia xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
9%
10.54
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Modena and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Modena and 1.19 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Modena have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 20W 16D 21L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia's form line: 14W 21D 22L from 57 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.33 PPG, Brescia on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.54 PPG from 28 outings (11W 10D 7L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 6W 11D 11L from 28 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 0.96 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Brescia in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 20W 16D 21L in their last 57 games (1.33 PPG), while Brescia have gone 14W 21D 22L in their last 57 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Brescia away?
Modena's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.54 PPG; Brescia away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Modena's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Modena
2
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Brescia?
From 6 meetings on record, Modena have won 2, Brescia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Modena 2-2 Brescia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 50%, Brescia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Modena) and 39% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 29% of games; Brescia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Modena's recent matches and 54% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Modena's recent games and 39% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Brescia tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Brescia in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brescia edge out Modena 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Modena 1-2 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.06 xG and Brescia 1.19 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Brescia outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.88 / defence 1.00 against Brescia attack 1.00 / defence 0.96, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 31% | Draw 31% | Brescia 37%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 44%, Brescia 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Brescia's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.33 PPG, Brescia 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brescia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.