Mantova vs Sudtirol – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mantova host Sudtirol at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sudtirol stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Mantova carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Mantova have won 2, Sudtirol 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 3–0 with Mantova winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mantova trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sudtirol trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 53% versus Sudtirol 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 53% | Sudtirol 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.45 xG and Sudtirol 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.076 / defence 0.985 | Sudtirol attack 1.167 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.271. Data: 45 Mantova games / 44 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 36% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 37%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Sudtirol 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mantova (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Mantova 40% | Sudtirol 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 36% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Mantova 1.45 / Sudtirol 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.076 / def 0.985 | Sudtirol attack 1.167 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Sudtirol xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Sudtirol kick off?
Mantova vs Sudtirol is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
Where is Mantova vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Sudtirol part of?
Mantova vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 36% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Mantova and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Sudtirol?
Record (4 meetings): Mantova 2W | Draws 2 | Sudtirol 0W.
What form are Mantova and Sudtirol in?
Mantova (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Mantova's attack at 1.08x the league average against Sudtirol's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
36%
2.76
27%
3.71
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.91
1.46
Sudtirol xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
8%
11.90
9%
11.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Mantova and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Mantova and 1.46 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mantova's recent record stands at 17W 9D 19L from 45 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sudtirol, meanwhile, have gone 10W 21D 14L across 45 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mantova on 1.33 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mantova have managed 10W 4D 8L from 22 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sudtirol's away record stands at 4W 11D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mantova are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 0.96 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 17W 9D 19L in their last 45 games (1.33 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 10W 21D 14L in their last 45 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Sudtirol away?
Mantova's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.55 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mantova and Sudtirol runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2026, when Mantova won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mantova's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Mantova
2
Draws
0
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Sudtirol?
From 4 meetings on record, Mantova have won 2, Sudtirol have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Sudtirol 0-3 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Sudtirol?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 59%, Sudtirol 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mantova) and 41% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Sudtirol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Mantova's games and 54% of Sudtirol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mantova vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mantova's recent games and 41% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.