Mantova 0-1 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Reggiana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 15 as Mantova welcome Reggiana to Stadio Danilo Martelli. Kick-off is set for Monday 8 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mantova's home record at Stadio Danilo Martelli: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Mantova are significantly better at Stadio Danilo Martelli than their overall form suggests.
Reggiana — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Reggiana have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mantova at 1.10 PPG versus Reggiana's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mantova, 1 for Reggiana and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2024, ended 0–2 with Reggiana winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mantova trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Reggiana trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 56% versus Reggiana 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 52% | Reggiana 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.95 xG and Reggiana 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.154 / defence 1.321 | Reggiana attack 1.034 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.085. Reggiana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Mantova's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Mantova games / 52 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 48% | Draw 24% | Reggiana 28%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Reggiana 3.57. Mantova hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mantova as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mantova 70% | Reggiana 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Monday 8 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 48% | Draw 24% | Reggiana 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Mantova 1.95 / Reggiana 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.154 / def 1.321 | Reggiana attack 1.034 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Mantova (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Reggiana xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Reggiana kick off?
Mantova vs Reggiana kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 8 December 2025 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Reggiana?
Mantova 0 - 1 Reggiana.
Where is Mantova vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Reggiana part of?
Mantova vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 48% chance of winning, Reggiana a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Mantova and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Reggiana?
Record (2 meetings): Mantova 0W | Draws 1 | Reggiana 1W.
What form are Mantova and Reggiana in?
Mantova (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Reggiana (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mantova's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Reggiana's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
48%
2.10
24%
4.19
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Mantova xG
Total xG
3.43
1.48
Reggiana xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
14%
7.04
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
4%
24.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Mantova and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Mantova and 1.48 for Reggiana, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mantova come into this having played 52 games, going 14W 16D 22L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.17 PPG from 52 outings (15W 16D 21L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mantova on 1.12 PPG, Reggiana on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Mantova's home form reads 11W 8D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 0.96 points per game from 26 outings (6W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mantova are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.15 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 14W 16D 22L in their last 52 games (1.12 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 15W 16D 21L in their last 52 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Reggiana away?
Mantova's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.58 PPG; Reggiana away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 10 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Reggiana have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Mantova's record when hosting Reggiana specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mantova
1
Draws
3
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Reggiana?
From 4 meetings on record, Mantova have won 0, Reggiana have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2026, when Reggiana 1-0 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Reggiana?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 54%, Reggiana 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mantova) and 50% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Reggiana in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Reggiana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Mantova's games and 62% of Reggiana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mantova vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mantova's recent games and 50% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Reggiana tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reggiana defy the odds to beat Mantova 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana beat Mantova 0-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.95 xG and Reggiana 1.48 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mantova fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.15 / defence 1.32 against Reggiana attack 1.03 / defence 1.24, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 48% | Draw 24% | Reggiana 28%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Reggiana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 52%, Reggiana 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reggiana's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.12 PPG, Reggiana 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Reggiana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.