Mantova 2-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mantova at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mantova vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pisa make the trip to Stadio Danilo Martelli to face Mantova in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Mantova's overall Serie B record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mantova have posted 8W 1D 1L at Stadio Danilo Martelli — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Pisa (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Mantova. A 1.60 PPG lead over Pisa (2.20 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mantova lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 1–3 with Pisa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Mantova half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 52% versus Pisa 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 52% | Pisa 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.61 xG and Pisa 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.234 / defence 0.908 | Pisa attack 1.120 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.133. Data: 42 Mantova games / 4 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 48% | Draw 25% | Pisa 27%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Pisa 3.70. Mantova hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mantova at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mantova if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Mantova 50% | Pisa 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 48% | Draw 25% | Pisa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Mantova 1.61 / Pisa 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.234 / def 0.908 | Pisa attack 1.120 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Mantova (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Pisa xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Pisa kick off?
Mantova vs Pisa kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Pisa?
Mantova 2 - 2 Pisa.
Where is Mantova vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Pisa part of?
Mantova vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 48% chance of winning, Pisa a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Mantova and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Pisa?
Record (2 meetings): Mantova 0W | Draws 0 | Pisa 2W.
What form are Mantova and Pisa in?
Mantova (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Pisa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mantova's attack rating (1.23) and Pisa's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (1.12x) against Mantova's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
48%
2.09
25%
3.97
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.76
1.15
Pisa xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
5%
18.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Mantova and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Mantova and 1.15 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mantova's recent record stands at 16W 8D 18L from 42 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 4W 12D 26L across 42 games — 0.57 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mantova by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pisa heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mantova have managed 10W 3D 7L from 20 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 1W 8D 11L across 20 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mantova are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 0.76 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Pisa in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 16W 8D 18L in their last 42 games (1.33 PPG), while Pisa have gone 4W 12D 26L in their last 42 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Pisa away?
Mantova's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.65 PPG; Pisa away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mantova have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Mantova
1
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Pisa?
From 3 meetings on record, Mantova have won 0, Pisa have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Mantova 2-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 60%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Mantova and 70% for Pisa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pisa in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Mantova's games and 50% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mantova vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Mantova's matches and 70% of Pisa's.
Do Mantova and Pisa tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Pisa in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mantova and Pisa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 5, as Mantova and Pisa drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.61 xG and Pisa 1.15 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Pisa outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.23 / defence 0.91 against Pisa attack 1.12 / defence 0.96, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 48% | Draw 25% | Pisa 27%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 52%, Pisa 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mantova arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.