Lecco 2-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lecco face Sudtirol.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lecco host Sudtirol at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi in Serie B (matchday 19). Kick-off is Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lecco stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Lecco have posted 2W 1D 5L from their last 8 home games — 0.88 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Sudtirol have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lecco at 1.30 PPG versus Sudtirol's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Lecco trading profile (last 18 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Sudtirol trading profile (last 18 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecco 50% versus Sudtirol 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecco 50% | Sudtirol 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lecco surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Sudtirol have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecco 1.16 xG and Sudtirol 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecco attack 0.881 / defence 1.322 | Sudtirol attack 1.056 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.164. Lecco's defence rating of 1.322 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sudtirol's projected output up. Data: built from Lecco's last 18 games and Sudtirol's last 56.
Result probabilities: Lecco 27% | Draw 26% | Sudtirol 48%. Fair-value odds: Lecco 3.74 | Draw 3.92 | Sudtirol 2.10. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lecco's last 8 home games and Sudtirol's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lecco 50% (last 8 home games) | Sudtirol 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecco vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecco 27% | Draw 26% | Sudtirol 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Lecco 1.16 / Sudtirol 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Lecco attack 0.881 / def 1.322 | Sudtirol attack 1.056 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Lecco xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Sudtirol xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lecco vs Sudtirol FAQs
What time does Lecco vs Sudtirol kick off?
Lecco vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What was the final score in Lecco vs Sudtirol?
Lecco 2 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Lecco vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What competition is Lecco vs Sudtirol part of?
Lecco vs Sudtirol is a Serie B fixture (matchday 19) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecco vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Lecco a 27% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecco vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lecco and Sudtirol will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lecco vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lecco's attack rating (0.88) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Lecco's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lecco's last 18 games and Sudtirol's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
27%
3.74
26%
3.92
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Lecco xG
Total xG
2.79
1.62
Sudtirol xG
3.74
27%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
5%
18.97
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lecco vs Sudtirol Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecco vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Lecco and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Lecco and 1.62 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecco vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lecco come into this having played 18 games, going 4W 5D 9L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.11 PPG from 18 outings (5W 5D 8L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lecco on 0.94 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lecco's home form reads 2W 1D 5L across their last 8 home games, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 8 away games (2W 2D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Lecco are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.39 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sudtirol in 67%.
Last 18 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecco
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
Lecco (Home) vs Sudtirol (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lecco
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Lecco vs Sudtirol Form FAQs
What form are Lecco and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Lecco have gone 4W 5D 9L in their last 18 games (0.94 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 5W 5D 8L in their last 18 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecco at home or Sudtirol away?
Sudtirol's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecco at home: 0.88 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lecco
0
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Lecco vs Sudtirol H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Sudtirol?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Lecco have won 1, Sudtirol have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lecco and Sudtirol last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2024: Sudtirol 1-0 Lecco.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecco 50%, Sudtirol 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lecco) and 62% (Sudtirol). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lecco have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecco home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lecco vs Sudtirol Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lecco and Sudtirol matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Lecco's games and 75% of Sudtirol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lecco and Sudtirol matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Lecco's matches and 62% of Sudtirol's.
Do Lecco and Sudtirol matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Lecco's recent matches and 88% of Sudtirol's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lecco defy the odds to beat Sudtirol 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecco beat Sudtirol 2-1 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecco 1.16 xG and Sudtirol 1.62 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Lecco beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecco attack 0.88 / defence 1.32 against Sudtirol attack 1.06 / defence 1.08, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecco 27% | Draw 26% | Sudtirol 48%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Lecco win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecco 50%, Sudtirol 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecco's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Sudtirol's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecco 0.94 PPG, Sudtirol 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lecco win broke the near-deadlock. Lecco (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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