Lecce 1-1 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lecce at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lecce vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lecce host Benevento at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 February 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lecce — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce's home record at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Benevento have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lecce at 2.10 PPG versus Benevento's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Lecce have won 0, Benevento 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Lecce in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Benevento in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 52% versus Benevento 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 52% | Benevento 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.58 xG and Benevento 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 1.428 / defence 1.075 | Benevento attack 0.844 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 0.973 / away 1.140. Lecce carry an above-average attack strength of 1.428 — their λ of 1.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 21 Lecce games / 21 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 47% | Draw 30% | Benevento 22%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Benevento 4.55. Lecce hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lecce at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lecce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Lecce 60% | Benevento 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Via del Mare • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 47% | Draw 30% | Benevento 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Lecce 1.58 / Benevento 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 1.428 / def 1.075 | Benevento attack 0.844 / def 1.137 | league avg home 0.973 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Lecce (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Benevento xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Benevento kick off?
Lecce vs Benevento kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Benevento?
Lecce 1 - 1 Benevento.
Where is Lecce vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Benevento part of?
Lecce vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 47% chance of winning, Benevento a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lecce and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Benevento?
Record (1 meetings): Lecce 0W | Draws 1 | Benevento 0W.
What form are Lecce and Benevento in?
Lecce (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Benevento (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lecce's attack at 1.43x the league average against Benevento's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
47%
2.11
30%
3.30
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.61
1.03
Benevento xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
5%
21.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.0 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Lecce and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Lecce and 1.03 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lecce's recent record stands at 11W 8D 2L from 21 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento, meanwhile, have gone 10W 6D 5L across 21 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lecce on 1.95 PPG, Benevento on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lecce have managed 7W 3D 0L from 10 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.95 PPG overall — Lecce are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Benevento's away record stands at 4W 3D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lecce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lecce are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.57 scored and 0.95 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Benevento in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Benevento in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 11W 8D 2L in their last 21 games (1.95 PPG), while Benevento have gone 10W 6D 5L in their last 21 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Benevento away?
Lecce's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 2.40 PPG; Benevento away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Lecce or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Benevento in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lecce
2
Draws
0
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Benevento?
From 2 meetings on record, Lecce have won 0, Benevento have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2022, when Lecce 1-1 Benevento.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 60%, Benevento 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Lecce) and 10% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Lecce keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Benevento in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Lecce's recent matches and 40% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Lecce's recent games and 10% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Benevento tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Benevento in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lecce and Benevento share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce and Benevento finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.58 xG and Benevento 1.03 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 1.43 / defence 1.07 against Benevento attack 0.84 / defence 1.14, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 47% | Draw 30% | Benevento 22%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 52%, Benevento 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Benevento's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecce 1.95 PPG, Benevento 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lecce (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.