Juve Stabia 1-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juve Stabia at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Sudtirol travel to Stadio Romeo Menti to take on Juve Stabia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 December 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Juve Stabia — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Stadio Romeo Menti this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Romeo Menti. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Juve Stabia are significantly better at Stadio Romeo Menti than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sudtirol stand at 0W 7D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's form when playing away from home: 0W 9D 1L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Juve Stabia have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Juve Stabia have won 1, Sudtirol 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Sudtirol winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Juve Stabia in-play and half-time data (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 49% versus Sudtirol 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 49% | Sudtirol 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.15 xG and Sudtirol 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.926 / defence 0.724 | Sudtirol attack 0.883 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.075. Juve Stabia's defence rating of 0.724 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Juve Stabia games / 55 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 45% | Draw 34% | Sudtirol 20%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.22 | Draw 2.94 | Sudtirol 5.00. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Sudtirol's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates are neutral: Juve Stabia 30% | Sudtirol 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 45% | Draw 34% | Sudtirol 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Juve Stabia 1.15 / Sudtirol 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.926 / def 0.724 | Sudtirol attack 0.883 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Sudtirol xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 December 2025 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol?
Juve Stabia 1 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol part of?
Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 45% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 20% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Juve Stabia and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Sudtirol?
Record (2 meetings): Juve Stabia 1W | Draws 0 | Sudtirol 1W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Sudtirol in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Sudtirol (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.7%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
45%
2.20
34%
2.93
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
1.84
0.69
Sudtirol xG
2.20
45%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.82
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
6%
15.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 10.9 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 12.6 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.69 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 19W 20D 16L from 55 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol, meanwhile, have gone 14W 20D 21L across 55 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.40 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 15W 8D 5L from 28 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Juve Stabia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sudtirol's away record stands at 6W 11D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sudtirol in 60%.
Last 55 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 19W 20D 16L in their last 55 games (1.40 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 14W 20D 21L in their last 55 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Sudtirol away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.89 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Juve Stabia's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Sudtirol?
From 4 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 2, Sudtirol have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Sudtirol 1-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Sudtirol?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 43%, Sudtirol 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Juve Stabia) and 46% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sudtirol in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 54% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 46% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juve Stabia edge out Sudtirol 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Sudtirol 1-0 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.15 xG and Sudtirol 0.69 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.93 / defence 0.72 against Sudtirol attack 0.88 / defence 0.93, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 45% | Draw 34% | Sudtirol 20%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 49%, Sudtirol 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sudtirol's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.40 PPG, Sudtirol 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.