Genoa 2-0 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Perugia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Genoa host Perugia at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Genoa's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.10 conceded per game. 9 clean sheets from 10 home games (90%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
Perugia — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Perugia have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Genoa have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Genoa have won 0, Perugia 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Perugia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Genoa in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Perugia in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 39% versus Perugia 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 40% | Perugia 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.26 xG and Perugia 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 1.088 / defence 0.646 | Perugia attack 1.028 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 0.975. Genoa's defence rating of 0.646 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 32 Genoa games / 70 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 51% | Draw 30% | Perugia 19%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Perugia 5.26. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Perugia's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 0% | Perugia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 51% | Draw 30% | Perugia 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 35% | xG Genoa 1.26 / Perugia 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 1.088 / def 0.646 | Perugia attack 1.028 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.127 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Genoa (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Perugia xG
35%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Perugia kick off?
Genoa vs Perugia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Perugia?
Genoa 2 - 0 Perugia.
Where is Genoa vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Perugia part of?
Genoa vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 51% chance of winning, Perugia a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Genoa and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Perugia?
Record (1 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 0 | Perugia 1W.
What form are Genoa and Perugia in?
Genoa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Perugia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Genoa's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Perugia's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Perugia's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
51%
1.96
30%
3.30
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Genoa xG
Total xG
1.91
0.65
Perugia xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
5%
18.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 9.6 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.1 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Genoa and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Genoa and 0.65 for Perugia, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Genoa's recent record stands at 21W 26D 23L from 70 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Perugia, meanwhile, have gone 22W 23D 25L across 70 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 1.27 PPG, Perugia on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 12W 14D 9L from 35 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Perugia's away record stands at 11W 10D 14L across 35 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.07 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Current Season
Perugia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Perugia in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 21W 26D 23L in their last 70 games (1.27 PPG), while Perugia have gone 22W 23D 25L in their last 70 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Perugia away?
Genoa's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.43 PPG; Perugia away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Genoa or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Perugia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Perugia runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Genoa
0
Draws
1
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Perugia?
From 2 meetings on record, Genoa have won 1, Perugia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Genoa 2-0 Perugia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 31%, Perugia 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Genoa) and 40% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Perugia in 31%; Genoa have failed to score in 37% of games; Perugia in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Genoa's recent matches and 49% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Genoa's recent games and 40% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Perugia tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 51% of their recent matches, Perugia in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Perugia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Perugia 2-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.26 xG and Perugia 0.65 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.09 / defence 0.65 against Perugia attack 1.03 / defence 1.03, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 51% | Draw 30% | Perugia 19%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 40%, Perugia 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Perugia's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.27 PPG, Perugia 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Perugia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.