Genoa 1-0 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Frosinone at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Frosinone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Genoa host Frosinone at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 December 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Genoa — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Frosinone have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Frosinone are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Genoa in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Frosinone in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 42% versus Frosinone 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 38% | Frosinone 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.80 xG and Frosinone 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.806 / defence 0.913 | Frosinone attack 1.162 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.094. Data: 17 Genoa games / 55 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 23% | Draw 35% | Frosinone 42%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 4.35 | Draw 2.86 | Frosinone 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Frosinone are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 40% | Frosinone 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Dec 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 23% | Draw 35% | Frosinone 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Genoa 0.80 / Frosinone 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.806 / def 0.913 | Frosinone attack 1.162 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Frosinone xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Frosinone kick off?
Genoa vs Frosinone kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 18 December 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Frosinone?
Genoa 1 - 0 Frosinone.
Where is Genoa vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Frosinone part of?
Genoa vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 23% chance of winning, Frosinone a 42% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Genoa and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Frosinone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genoa and Frosinone in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Frosinone (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Genoa's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
23%
4.33
35%
2.85
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Genoa xG
Total xG
1.97
1.16
Frosinone xG
4.33
23%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
7%
13.84
19%
5.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 16.3 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Genoa and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Genoa and 1.16 for Frosinone, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Genoa come into this having played 55 games, going 11W 22D 22L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.71 PPG from 55 outings (26W 16D 13L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Genoa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Genoa's home form reads 5W 13D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.30 points per game from 27 outings (9W 8D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Frosinone's season.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.51 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 11W 22D 22L in their last 55 games (1.00 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 26W 16D 13L in their last 55 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.04 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Genoa or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Frosinone in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Frosinone runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Genoa's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Genoa
1
Draws
2
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Genoa have won 1, Frosinone have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Genoa 1-1 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 41%, Frosinone 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Genoa) and 48% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Genoa have failed to score in 44% of games; Frosinone in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Genoa's recent matches and 52% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Genoa's recent games and 48% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Frosinone tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genoa defy the odds to beat Frosinone 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Frosinone 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.80 xG and Frosinone 1.16 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Frosinone landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against Frosinone attack 1.16 / defence 0.88, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 23% | Draw 35% | Frosinone 42%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Genoa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 38%, Frosinone 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Frosinone's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Genoa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.