Frosinone 1-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Frosinone vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Benito Stirpe plays host to Frosinone versus Ternana in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 4 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Frosinone have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Frosinone have posted 2W 5D 1L at Stadio Benito Stirpe — 1.38 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ternana (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Ternana have posted 2W 2D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.14 PPG. Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.14 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Frosinone, 1.70 for Ternana — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Frosinone have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Ternana in 71%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Frosinone 60% and Ternana 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 40% | Ternana 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.44 xG and Ternana 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 0.979 / defence 1.132 | Ternana attack 1.149 / defence 1.440. League average goals — home 1.020 / away 1.176. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.440 — this is suppressing Frosinone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Frosinone games / 15 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 35% | Draw 25% | Ternana 39%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Ternana 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ternana at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 62% | Ternana 71% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 35% | Draw 25% | Ternana 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Frosinone 1.44 / Ternana 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 0.979 / def 1.132 | Ternana attack 1.149 / def 1.440 | league avg home 1.020 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Ternana (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Ternana xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Ternana kick off?
Frosinone vs Ternana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Ternana?
Frosinone 1 - 1 Ternana.
Where is Frosinone vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Ternana part of?
Frosinone vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 35% chance of winning, Ternana a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Frosinone and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Ternana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Frosinone and Ternana in?
Frosinone (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Ternana (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Frosinone's attack at 0.98x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (1.15x) against Frosinone's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
35%
2.84
25%
3.93
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.97
1.53
Ternana xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
8%
13.11
9%
10.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.53 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, Frosinone have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 5W 9D 1L record — W-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana's form line: 6W 3D 6L from 15 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Frosinone against 1.40 for Ternana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Frosinone have posted 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (2W 4D 1L).
On the road, Ternana have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Frosinone are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.67 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Frosinone have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Ternana in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Ternana in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 5W 9D 1L in their last 15 games (1.60 PPG), while Ternana have gone 6W 3D 6L in their last 15 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Ternana away?
Frosinone's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.43 PPG; Ternana away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ternana in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Frosinone go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Frosinone won 3-0 on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ternana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Frosinone
2
Draws
0
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Ternana?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 2, Ternana have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Ternana 2-3 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Ternana?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Frosinone see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 57%, Ternana 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Frosinone) and 57% (Ternana). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Frosinone have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Frosinone's games and 71% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Frosinone vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Frosinone's matches and 57% of Ternana's.
Do Frosinone and Ternana tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Ternana in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone and Ternana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone and Ternana finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.44 xG and Ternana 1.53 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.98 / defence 1.13 against Ternana attack 1.15 / defence 1.44, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 35% | Draw 25% | Ternana 39%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 40%, Ternana 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Ternana's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.60 PPG, Ternana 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ternana (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.