Frosinone 0-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Frosinone vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Frosinone and Sudtirol meet at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Frosinone have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sudtirol's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Frosinone, 1.40 for Sudtirol — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Frosinone have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Sudtirol in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Frosinone 0W, Sudtirol 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 19% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Sudtirol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 33% versus Sudtirol 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Frosinone 39% | Sudtirol 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.19 xG and Sudtirol 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.284 / defence 0.886 | Sudtirol attack 0.817 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 0.977. Frosinone carry an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — their λ of 1.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 71 Frosinone games / 33 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 47% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 21%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Sudtirol 4.76. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 30% | Sudtirol 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 47% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Frosinone 1.19 / Sudtirol 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.284 / def 0.886 | Sudtirol attack 0.817 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.145 / away 0.977 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Sudtirol xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Sudtirol kick off?
Frosinone vs Sudtirol kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Sudtirol?
Frosinone 0 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Frosinone vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Sudtirol part of?
Frosinone vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 47% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Frosinone and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Sudtirol?
Record (1 meetings): Frosinone 0W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 0W.
What form are Frosinone and Sudtirol in?
Frosinone (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Frosinone's attack at 1.28x the league average against Sudtirol's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.82x) against Frosinone's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
47%
2.15
32%
3.11
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Frosinone xG
Total xG
1.89
0.71
Sudtirol xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
7%
15.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 10.7 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.6 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.71 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 33 outings, Frosinone have picked up 2.03 PPG on a 20W 7D 6L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Sudtirol's form line: 13W 13D 7L from 33 games, 1.58 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Frosinone are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sudtirol.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Frosinone have posted 2.38 PPG from 16 outings (12W 2D 2L).
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 7W 5D 4L from 16 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Frosinone are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.61 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.06 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games; Sudtirol in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 20W 7D 6L in their last 33 games (2.03 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 13W 13D 7L in their last 33 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Sudtirol away?
Frosinone's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 2.38 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sudtirol won 0-3 on 25 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Frosinone
4
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Sudtirol?
From 6 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 1, Sudtirol have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Sudtirol 1-3 Frosinone.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 19% (Frosinone) and 25% (Sudtirol) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Frosinone and 19% for Sudtirol.
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Sudtirol in 50%; Sudtirol in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 19% of Frosinone's recent matches and 25% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Frosinone's recent games and 19% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Frosinone's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 34, as Frosinone and Sudtirol drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.19 xG and Sudtirol 0.71 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Frosinone fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.28 / defence 0.89 against Sudtirol attack 0.82 / defence 0.81, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 47% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 21%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 39%, Sudtirol 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sudtirol's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.58. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.