Frosinone 2-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Frosinone vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Frosinone and Cremonese meet at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Frosinone have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Frosinone at Stadio Benito Stirpe this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Frosinone are significantly better at Stadio Benito Stirpe than their overall form suggests.
Cremonese (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Cremonese are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Frosinone, 0 for Cremonese and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 46% versus Cremonese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 46% | Cremonese 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.28 xG and Cremonese 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.201 / defence 0.853 | Cremonese attack 0.980 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.050 / away 1.060. Data: 33 Frosinone games / 33 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 42% | Draw 35% | Cremonese 23%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.38 | Draw 2.86 | Cremonese 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cremonese (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 30% | Cremonese 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 42% | Draw 35% | Cremonese 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Frosinone 1.28 / Cremonese 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.201 / def 0.853 | Cremonese attack 0.980 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.050 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Cremonese xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Cremonese kick off?
Frosinone vs Cremonese kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Cremonese?
Frosinone 2 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Frosinone vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Cremonese part of?
Frosinone vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 42% chance of winning, Cremonese a 23% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Frosinone and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Frosinone 0W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Frosinone and Cremonese in?
Frosinone (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Cremonese (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Frosinone's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.98x) against Frosinone's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
42%
2.35
35%
2.86
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.17
0.89
Cremonese xG
2.35
42%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
6%
16.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.89 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, Frosinone have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 13W 12D 8L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Cremonese's form line: 18W 9D 6L from 33 games, 1.91 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Frosinone against 1.91 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Frosinone have posted 1.88 PPG from 16 outings (8W 6D 2L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 8W 3D 5L from 16 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Frosinone are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.52 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 13W 12D 8L in their last 33 games (1.55 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 18W 9D 6L in their last 33 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Cremonese away?
Frosinone's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.88 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Cremonese in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Cremonese have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cremonese won 0-3 on 12 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Frosinone
1
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 1, Cremonese have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Frosinone 0-3 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 44%, Cremonese 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Frosinone) and 44% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Cremonese in 31%; Cremonese in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Frosinone's recent matches and 44% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Frosinone's recent games and 44% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Cremonese tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Cremonese 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Cremonese 2-1 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.28 xG and Cremonese 0.89 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.20 / defence 0.85 against Cremonese attack 0.98 / defence 1.02, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 42% | Draw 35% | Cremonese 23%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 46%, Cremonese 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Cremonese's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.55 PPG, Cremonese 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.