Empoli 1-1 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Reggiana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 25 as Empoli welcome Reggiana to Stadio Carlo Castellani. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Empoli have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's home record at Stadio Carlo Castellani: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reggiana stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggiana's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Empoli at 0.80 PPG versus Reggiana's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Empoli register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Reggiana in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Empoli have won 0, Reggiana 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Reggiana winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Empoli trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Reggiana trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 55% versus Reggiana 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 48% | Reggiana 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.30 xG and Reggiana 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.906 / defence 1.064 | Reggiana attack 0.832 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.063. Data: 24 Empoli games / 62 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 44% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 26%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Reggiana 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Empoli 60% | Reggiana 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 44% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Empoli 1.30 / Reggiana 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.906 / def 1.064 | Reggiana attack 0.832 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Empoli (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Reggiana xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Reggiana kick off?
Empoli vs Reggiana kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Reggiana?
Empoli 1 - 1 Reggiana.
Where is Empoli vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Reggiana part of?
Empoli vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 44% chance of winning, Reggiana a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Empoli and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Reggiana?
Record (1 meetings): Empoli 0W | Draws 0 | Reggiana 1W.
What form are Empoli and Reggiana in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Reggiana (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.91x the league average against Reggiana's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.39
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.24
0.94
Reggiana xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
7%
13.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Empoli and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Empoli and 0.94 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Empoli have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 13W 20D 29L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reggiana's form line: 17W 17D 28L from 62 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 0.95 PPG, Reggiana on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Empoli have posted 0.90 PPG from 31 outings (5W 13D 13L).
On the road, Reggiana have gone 7W 7D 17L from 31 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.10 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 13W 20D 29L in their last 62 games (0.95 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 17W 17D 28L in their last 62 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Reggiana away?
Empoli's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.90 PPG; Reggiana away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Empoli and Reggiana runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Empoli
1
Draws
1
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Reggiana?
From 2 meetings on record, Empoli have won 0, Reggiana have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Empoli 1-1 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Reggiana?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 52%, Reggiana 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Empoli) and 48% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Empoli have failed to score in 39% of games; Reggiana in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Reggiana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Empoli's recent matches and 58% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Empoli's recent games and 48% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Reggiana tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli and Reggiana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 25, as Empoli and Reggiana drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.30 xG and Reggiana 0.94 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.91 / defence 1.06 against Reggiana attack 0.83 / defence 1.12, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 44% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 26%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 48%, Reggiana 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Reggiana's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 0.95 PPG, Reggiana 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.