Empoli 1-3 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Empoli host Palermo at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 December 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Empoli have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Palermo — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Palermo have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Empoli) versus 1.30 (Palermo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Empoli register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Palermo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Empoli in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Palermo in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 58% versus Palermo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 50% | Palermo 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.39 xG and Palermo 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 1.166 / defence 0.967 | Palermo attack 0.945 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.048. Data: 14 Empoli games / 52 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 45% | Draw 30% | Palermo 24%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Palermo 4.17. Empoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Empoli at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Empoli 80% | Palermo 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 45% | Draw 30% | Palermo 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Empoli 1.39 / Palermo 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 1.166 / def 0.967 | Palermo attack 0.945 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Empoli (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Palermo xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Palermo kick off?
Empoli vs Palermo kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Palermo?
Empoli 1 - 3 Palermo.
Where is Empoli vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Palermo part of?
Empoli vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 45% chance of winning, Palermo a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Empoli and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Palermo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Empoli and Palermo in?
Empoli (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Palermo (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Empoli's attack at 1.17x the league average against Palermo's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
45%
2.20
30%
3.32
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.34
0.96
Palermo xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
6%
16.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Empoli and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Empoli and 0.96 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Empoli have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 11W 18D 23L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo's form line: 20W 15D 17L from 52 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Empoli.
Venue Form
On home soil, Empoli have posted 1.00 PPG from 25 outings (5W 10D 10L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 8W 7D 10L from 25 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Empoli are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.40 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Palermo in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 11W 18D 23L in their last 52 games (0.98 PPG), while Palermo have gone 20W 15D 17L in their last 52 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Palermo away?
Palermo's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.00 PPG; Palermo away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Empoli or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Palermo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Empoli
0
Draws
2
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Palermo?
From 2 meetings on record, Empoli have won 0, Palermo have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Palermo 3-2 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Empoli see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 52%, Palermo 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Empoli) and 52% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Empoli have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Empoli's games and 64% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Empoli's recent games and 52% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Palermo tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Palermo in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Empoli 1-3 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.39 xG and Palermo 0.96 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Palermo outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 1.17 / defence 0.97 against Palermo attack 0.94 / defence 0.87, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 45% | Draw 30% | Palermo 24%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Palermo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 50%, Palermo 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Empoli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.